A reader comments,
In Riverside, 30 Owenoke sold for $2.3 million or 22% below its peak sale price in 2006. That’s not too bad, and certainly not 40% down as many bloggers may have wanted. That’s also higher than its full 2005 market value assessment of $2.2 million. So going back to 2005 prices from 2006 prices ain’t so bad after all (there was a thread on this earlier).
First of all, neither I nor any other blogger I know “wants” prices to have fallen to a particular level – we’re just trying to give an accurate picture of what’s going on. Second, the reader misses an obvious point: the market value for 30 Owenoke was not, as the town thought, $1.5 million, but what it sold for, $2.950 (in fact, the broker originally thought it was worth $3.4 million). Houses in town in 2006 routinely sold for 2X their town-estimated market value – the average was 2.1 X. So to measure where prices have dropped to, you shouldn’t use the old assessed values as a starting point: they were just a point prices met on their way down.
what about the house on gisborne in OG what was that discount to last sale? I think adjusted for inflation you said it was back to 99 levels?
and regarding the owenoke comment that it’s only down 22% from 06 sale price: there is an ASS for every seat. If the driveway guard didn’t scare him off then overpaying shouldn’t either.
FYIT, NY Times (yes. they’re still in business) reports on house auctions in DC and Miami (For Housing Crisis, the End Probably Isn’t Near http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/22/business/economy/22leonhardt.html?hp ) and concludes ” if you are part of the 30 percent of American households who rent and you’re trying to decide when to buy, relax. The market is still coming your way.”
Whatever. Good to have some (limited) hard data, and that we do not necessarily have to assume the worst when trying to get an accurate picture of where we are today.
No offense CF, but I think you may be misunderstanding how the town assesses value.
2005 market value town appraisal: $2.2 million
2006 market value per sale: $2.95 million
2008 market value per sale: $2.3 million
Simple conclusion: 2008 is down 22% from 2006 peak but still above 2005 levels.
Addressing your commentary:
The town never thought the house was worth $1.5 million as you are proposing above. They thought it was worth $2.2 million in 2005, but they only taxed $1.5 million of it because they only tax 70% of your property value in Greenwich. Further, the town doesn’t appraise every year, but only every 3-4 years. So they only have a 2005 appraisal. They never presented any appraisal in 2006. Nor did I. I simply used the sale price of $2.95 million in 2006.
No I understand that, Anonymous, but my point was that the market value, as determined by sale, 2.950 in 2006, so to say it only dropped $100,000 from the town’s estimated value of $2.3 in 2005 isn’t accurate.
114 Overlook Dr 02/05/09 $1,500,000 8/2/2007 $1,896,000 -26.40%
7 Gisborne Pl 02/17/09 $2,200,000 1/5/2007 $2,860,000 -30.00%
There was apparently an intermediate transfer of the Gisborne Place property from Keith W. Newman to Cartus Financial Corporation, a relocation firm. The deed was signed November 17, 2008 at a price of $2,505,000. The February sale resulted from marketing by the relocation firm.
Thanks, Peter.