Former GAR head Russ Pruner has weighed in to refute my data and says that there were “156 transactions completed this year” and that prices were “only 12% below 2005 values”. I wasn’t all that shaken, because the market value soared in the years 2006-2008 so if the average has fallen just 12% below 2005′s prices, that would indeed amount to a 30% drop overall.
But my numbers have shown a far worse drop than that so I was going to go back and check my math. I didn’t get farther than that most basic number, though, sales this year. Instead of Russ’s claimed 156, we have 93 single family (which is what most of us track) and even tossing in co-ops and condos, which have been clobbered, we still get to only 125. If Russ can’t get that number right, why waste my time? So I won’t.
It’s the GAR, by the way, that continues to hide sales price declines by producing a sales statistic they call “sales to asking price” that, always, shows a 94-96% ratio. This astonishing figure is pure bullshit because, at the insistence of real estate brokerage firms, the Association uses the last asked price instead of the original price, which is often 25-50% higher, or worse. The same GAR ran another, similar scam, with a “days on market” statistic that brokers could reset by relisting their old tired pieces of over-priced crap. So what a deal – price something at $8 million (just to use a real example), let it sit unsold for four years, pull it, renew it at $4 million and sell it for that the same day and you have a wonderful statistic showing the vibrancy of the Greenwich market: wow, 100% of ask! In one day! Where can I get me some of this here Greenwich real estate? This particular fraud was ended after my own two year campaign to embarrass the board but the sales to ask scam persists and even days on market is being distorted again as brokers learn new tricks.
All of which is to suggest that Greenwich real estate brokers do not all share a committment to transparency – far from it, in fact. I know that they believe this will keep prices up and their commissions robust, but I think they’re harming buyers and sellers.
Why not publish the names of the people at GAR that do this?
CF, as much as I often mock IBers (esp corp fin coverage bankers) for having weak math skills (vs M&A bankers or HF traders), Greenwich shares distinction, along w/Woodside CA and Manhattan, of having some of smartest wealthy kids (and credible buyers) who are better at math and basic stats analysis than any realtor or most elderly sellers of land
GAR must be hoping to sell all these $10MM+ (ask) houses (and land buys) to innumerate lawyers, McKinsey consultants and widget factory owners…
searchgreenwich.net Sales Jan 1 – May 31 = 109
(Single, Condo, Coop, Land, Multi):
GMLS Sales June 1 – 30 = 48 (SF, Condo, Coop, Land). Total = 157. The GMLS June numbers will not include private sales.
searchgreenwich.net Single family (which include GMLS and private) = 75, GMLS June =33. Total not including June private = 108.
(as usual, use as you wish). Happy 4th.
Thanks lj.
All these number of sales figures DONT matter…. prices are still too high, appraisals wont line up with lenders if you can get one to lend to you.
PRICES ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH IN THIS ECONOMY FOR HOUSING TO BOTTOM.
I left Westchester County and will never go back. This town offers amenities that one cannot find in the tri-state area. People that live in this town try to stay here.
When I speak to my friends that live in NYS and tell them my property tax costs they are astonished how low they are. This is what realtors need to convey to the potential home buyers.
Why pay 50k worth of taxes for a 2.5 million dollar home in Westchester to support their wasteful and unnecessary county government.
This place will always be an attractive place to live and will survive this downturn. People need to focus on the positive aspects of living here rather than empty spec homes.
Thank you J. It is nice to hear your perspective on the town, and your words of good common sense.
Sorry fore the non sequitor.
How did 22 sundance and 124 woodside drive sell for so far above the tax assessment?
No MLS record for 22 Sunshine – if it sold for a big price, it could have been a bank sale, where the bank buys it back for what it’s owed, rather than actual market price.
124 Woodside’s assessed value was $1.220, yet it sold for $1.550. From readers’ comments at the time, there was a lot of sentiment that the buyer over-paid. He may have been swayed by the fact that the seller had paid $1.995 for it in January, 2008, and figured that $1550 was a good deal. And, relative to what it was worth the year before, perhaps it was.
Thanks CF. The other house is on Sundance in Cos Cob and not Sunshine (Riverside?). I think its the house you may have made the above ground pool removal comment last week. It too sold for well above assessment.
Cos Cobber, don’t forget that in 2007 houses were selling on average for 2.1X the assessment, so even to fall down to 100% is quite a drop.
Sundance’s selling price surprised me Cos Cobber. Obviously someone didn’t share my opinion of its value. It happens!
CF, admit it; the Cob remains red hot!
We had a lot of snow this winter, CC
Well, you are missing out on those chances to take back that plow money with this commissions.