Housing sales jump – the Mother of all head fakes?

Some people think so - I’m inclined to agree with them. We are certainly seeing more activity than last winter, but there’s no robust recovery here yet. Here are some statistics for single family house contracts:

                2007          2008                2009

May        58                 44                      35

June      63                 49                       39

July       40                  39                       36

10 Comments

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10 responses to “Housing sales jump – the Mother of all head fakes?

  1. Riverside Roger

    Using the 3-month totals gives us a better picture:

    2007 =161
    2008=132(down 18%)
    2007=110( down 32% over 07, 17% over 08)

    July is indded a head fake, I’m sorry to say.

    glug, glug, glug……..

  2. pulled up in OG

    Heads up – Shiller scheduled for Charlie (mute button gonna get a workout) Rose tonight.

  3. tom

    this is rather interesting – I see no collapse in the numbers, yet so much sturm and drang persists. Sure, sales are down, but they have not gone to zero!! I think the smart money is snapping up the prime properties, be they Meadow Road, Dawn Harbor, or Round Hill, at current levels.

    • christopherfountain

      Check my earlier posts, Tom for statistics and you’ll see that while we’re having some decent activity now, it hasn’t come close to making up for the lack of sales from September to March, usually a busy period. But it does seem that buyers aren’t frozen anymore, so if we resume normal activity, albeit at lower sales prices, all will be well with the world. If instead this is just pent up demand left from the non-Spring season, we aren’t in such great shape. May 09 compared to May 07 is dismal. We’re close to July 07 this year but ordinarily, sales are way down by July because everyone bought in the spring. We’ll just have to see how it goes.I know I’m very busy showing houses to real buyers, as are many other agents, so we might be okay.

  4. tom

    given that you are busy, as others seem to be, I think we should be okay, barely

  5. G'wich Transplant

    Chris, heard 156 Stanwich reported today. Can you please post sale price when you have a moment? Thanks.

  6. pulled up in OG

    Wow! Anyone else watch Shiller tonight? I found the guy fascinating, and Charlie even kept his mouth shut and let him talk!!

  7. Anonymous

    What is the inventory looking like ?

  8. HG

    This question of whether the bottom is in is very interesting. Tom is basically saying trust the real time data. I gather CF thinks the recent pick-up in activity is a head-fake. The data from the rest of the country (including Shiller’s data) is convincing–the bottom is in in many places. One difference is that in at least some of those places, prices have dropped below construction costs (Miami condos) and I’m tempted to think Greenwich house prices have to drop below construction costs in the worst bear market for houses since the 1930s (i.e., that the bottom would only be in at a price where you are getting the land for free). But I admit the trend supports Tom’s moderate bullish call.

  9. Anonymous

    Tom = HG
    Please confirm.
    So many personas, it’s hard to keep a track.