Just in time to please their Friday real estate advertisers, Greenwich Time is out with the front page news that home sales are up in Connecticut and, not content with that bit of misleading copywriting, a claim that “in Greenwich, sales and prices are up in July”. Up from where? And who gave them the statistics to back up that claim? Not I.
Here are some numbers on single family homes, all based on the Greenwich MLS records:
Sales (as of August 28), 2007: 600
“ ” 2008: 400
“ “ 2009: 264
Inventory (Aug. 28, 2007): 461
2008: 561
2009: 688
Sales between $300,000 – $499,000, 2007: 1
2008: 12
2009: 49
I’m still working on average and median prices but whatever Greenwich Time used to deduce that “sales and prices” are up in July, is either so skewed or such a small sample that it’s worthless as a guide to what’s happening.
Maybe they meant July month vs. YAG?
It would appear that the ranks of RE brokers will be thinner as well. Interesting to see if the professionals end up in foreclosure too.
There may be insufficient volume and I have not weeded out the anomalies, but the following chart may be of interest. The “Average Ratio” in the chart is the sale price divided by the 70% assessment. These are closed sales from various sources.
SORRY – FORGOT TO PRINT CHART
There may be insufficient volume and I have not weeded out the anomalies, but the following chart may be of interest. The “Average Ratio” in the chart is the sale price divided by the 70% assessment. These are closed sales from various sources.
Average Volume % Price
Ratio Change
1st Qtr. 08 1.48 105
2nd Qtr. 08 1.53 140 +3.38%
3rd Qtr 08 1.52 132 -0.65%
4th Qtr 08 1.37 30 -9.87
1st half 09 1.22 95 -10.95%
July 09 1.36 37 +11.48%
I don’t know why the table collapsed. May this will be clearer.
1st Qtr. 2008
Average Ratio: 1.48
Volume: 105
2nd Qtr. 2008
Average Ratio: 1.53
Volume: 140
% Price Change from 1st Qtr.: + 3.38%
3rd Qtr. 2008
Average Ratio: 1.52
Volume: 132
% Price Change from 2nd Qtr.: -0.65%
4th Qtr. 2008
Average Ratio: 1.37
Volume: 30
% Price Change from 3rd Qtr.: -9.87%
1st Half 2009
Average Ratio: 1.22
Volume: 95
% Price Change from 4th Qtr.: -10.95%
July 2009
Average Ratio: 1.36
Volume: 37
% Price Change from 1st Half: +11.48%
Well, thats all I need, the recession is over as Pete demonstrates that pricing is up!
Moving on…this list of the most expensive zip codes is fun.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/26/most-expensive-zip-codes-lifestyle-real-estate-zip_full-list.html
Really Walt, Cos Cob = South Bronx even though its #204 and the South Bronx, surprise, didn’t make the list?
Chris:
Clearly the reporter read my dialogue with one of the Anonymous boys about looking at month-to-month data trends rather than y-o-y or q-o-q. As I suggested then, the monthly trends are upward sloping.
BTW, whatever happened to commenter CEA? I don’t recall seeing any input from her in quite some time (unless, of course, her husband got wind of her screen name and she changed handles….)
I am sorry to hear that, especially since CEA’s analysis was typically interesting.
CEA, if you are out there in stealth mode, this reader misses your involvment. More importantly, it is a relief to hear that you did not “disappear” due to ill health or worse.
CEA left the blog back in the spring. She posted an explanation as to why she was signing off.
In short, her reason had to do with the content of the blog…I’ll leave at that since I didn’t quite see it her way.