NAR: Pending sales contracts for October mark largest increase ever.
Here’s how to produce that same result in Greenwich: compare 2009 to 2008. Just don’t use any other years, or the whole story wilts.
Greenwich October Contracts, single family homes
2009: 32
2008: 12
Wow! A 266% increase! Happy days are here again, as I’m sure we’ll be reading in some of the real estate columns printed locally.
On the other hand, the market curled into a ball and died last October after Lehman and the rest of Wall Street went kerplunk. If we look at earlier years, we see:
2007: 33
2006: 35
So you could say that we’re back to normal, which is a nice enough change let alone trying to drum up exciting increased activity statistics, but given our inventory, the lack of sales earlier this year and the rather dismal prospects for next, I remain cautious.
Chris, i must say i am surprised to see that Oct. o9′ sales are up there with 07′ and 06′
How did Sept. compare?
RE: data massage therapy
Big AP Headlines in Finance Today:
“More consumers late on auto loan payments in 3Q
“The auto delinquency rate — the rate at which payments fell behind 60 days or more — edged up in the July-to-September quarter to 0.81 percent, from 0.80 in the same period last year, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion.
“Those factors led to a drop in average auto debt in the third quarter. Nationally, the amount outstanding on the average car loan dipped 2.5 percent to $12,542, from $12,861 last year.”
So let me get this big news story straight before we stop the presses:
Of 1000 car loans last year to this one 3Q, we went from 80 to 81 payers late 60 days or more, but the 1000 loan average value outstanding went down $319.
And this is a bad news headline?
CF does a great job of mixing various stats and anecdotes to relay a “feel” for what’s happening in mkt, which moves in a jagged, noisy line, like most real-world mkts or businesses
But most journalists, readers and “professionals” clearly struggle with basic stats, let alone more complex interpretations of data
Yes, even “professional” Quant Head realized after posting that he meant 81 out of 10,000 loans.