10 Circle Drive Ext.
With the exception of western Greenwich, this 0.3 acre building lot is about as bad as you can get in terms of desirability - the original listing broker described it, without irony, as “convenient to transportation” and indeed it is, as you have only the Metro-North train tracks separating you from the Thruway. It didn’t sell – surprise! – at the $825,000 that broker asked for it the past two years but a new broker came along, slashed its price to $499,000 and has it under contract today (Assessment is $583,000).
My point is this: assuming it sells for, what? $425? $450? We may finally have hit a base price for land here in town. Almost any other lot should be worth more than this and that should give property owners in Havemeyer or better parts of Cos Cob a sense of relief: I was beginning to worry that we’d fall even lower before stabilizing. Prices could drop lower, of course, but I sense that we’ve just glimpsed bottom.
Either that or you got a glimpse of an idiot buying property for still way too much. Time will tell I guess, but it is interesting you are willing to even consider we are at or near the bottom.
For my money, still way to early to call a bottom. Talk to me when (though IF might be the more correct term) the FED stops subsidizing the housing market through ZIRP and MBS purchases (which have reduced mortgage rates by 100 basis points according to the NY Fed).
Only then will we know where the housing bottom is…
Arguably such a poor location has negative value unless one can find a sucker buyer to pay more
I admire your willingness to call the bottom and to assign a price to land (I think your price is right). Personally, I don’t think you need the question mark on “Touching Bottom”
Connect the dots and explain, please, why a new low here makes a bottom on the price line all over Town, and not just at the location for 2009 only.
Maybe just because I feel the need to be wrong again, IB’r. But I’m estimating that you could build something new on this lot for, say, $350,000, and if you had $425,00 into the land I think – I think- you could sell it for around that total.
Let’s play out this teardown scenario. Buy the lot for $425k, built for additional $350k, even if you build in zero profit you are looking at a $775k property, which would require someone, at a minimum, to be making $200k annually to afford.
While I understand that this is poor by Greenwich standards, there is nothing forcing this person to actually live in Greenwich. Hard to understand why someone with other options (which this person would have, though maybe in a different town) would actually choose to live in such a location. I think I agree with the above poster who said this lot probably has negative value.
You disparage a lovely neighborhood that has about 80 homes and families. Morningside, Circle Drive, and Circle Drive Extension form a wonderful environment to raise young families–with a smattering of the original “GI-bill” owners aging out. No traffic, friendly neighbors, a good school district, and good proximity to virtually everything (5 minutes to downtown, 4 minutes to OG, 9 minutes to Stamford). I grew up in backcountry, looked at buying in Havemeyer, and so-called “better parts of Cos Cob,” and much prefer this neighborhood for a ton of reasons. The property you mention is a little rough, for sure, but not indicative of the area you make sound so “undesirable.” Clearly you really don’t know the area…
It’s not a bad neighborhood – the lots that overlook the golf course are lovely, in fact. But this lot, backing up to the tracks and then the highway, is the worst in that neighborhood and indeed, about at the bottom for eastern Greenwich. Not to think much of it is not to disparage the entire area.
You sure about “touching bottom?” Just four months ago you wrote: “Perhaps we’re approaching basic shelter price now, and that price is settling in at $750,000 -$800,000.”
Dude -
How can you tell we are at bottom? Just curious. Do you put your head between your legs, open your eyes, and if you see (_l_) call bottom?
Your Pal,
Walt
Well the term “basic shelter” involves a house, so land at $425 wouldn’t rule out a $750,000 new house. But that said, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if we kept in our tailspin – certainly nothing coming from Washington lends encouragement to the thought that we’re pulling out of it.
Yes Chris, the Government will certainly not let well enough alone, K street and Wall street aren’t done yet.
50% tax? Who’s next?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/10/business/global/10pound.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1260450608-uOf7N+xh9tiTllIvU839+w