February 4, 2010 · 5:32 pm

Are “experts” really this clueless?

Month after month, dismal economic reports continue to “surprise experts”. Who are these guys, and do they ever get out onto the street? I’ll admit to being a bit of a recluse myself (I did try to find Bloomingdale’s Stamford branch the other day, but failed) but, just as a for instance, I was in the chicken place today and listened to a fellow customer, an experienced restaurateur, complaining that he’d found a great spot for a new place in Stamford for his next restaurant but four banks would only offer him between $10 – $15,000 as a start-up loan. This for someone with a solid track record and a great credit history. So no new restaurant, no new jobs. We plebes know that – what is it about economists that they keep getting surprised?

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11 Comments

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11 Responses to Are “experts” really this clueless?

  1. Mazama
    February 4, 2010 at 5:49 pm

    “what is it about economists that they keep getting surprised? ”

    They just listen to people who thinks they same way they do and rely too much on their “models” instead of real world observations. Come to think of it, I guess the economists – people good with numbers but without enough personality to be accountants – are the role models for the “climate change” “scientists”.

  2. shoeless
    February 4, 2010 at 5:49 pm

    And the birth/death model used by the BLS (Bureau of Lame Statistics) continues to add jobs to the payroll figure because it claims the data it receives isn’t capturing all the hiring going on by small businesses.

    Go figure.

  3. Anonymous
    February 4, 2010 at 6:52 pm

    An economist’s personal net worth reveals how much market values their “skills”

  4. John
    February 4, 2010 at 7:55 pm

    Then there is the question of Leadership. Reviewing the booze bill from Nancy Pelosi’s recent trip to Europe I can see one possible explanation.

    John

  5. Bloomingdale's Stamford
    February 4, 2010 at 8:38 pm

    I remember my father parking near the Hotel Roger Smith in Stamford to get to Bloomingdales in the late 1960′s and 1970′s. I think to avoid having to pay a parking fee. Somehow we had to walk through the lobby of that hotel to get to Bloomingdale’s. All I remember was a bunch of old guys watching golf on Saturday’s in that lobby of the hotel. Aren’t both entities long gone?Bloomingdales looked “modern” then. Now, just another department store 40 years later.

  6. Bloomy closed 1990
    February 4, 2010 at 9:29 pm

    http://www.hagley.lib.de.us/libimages/LoewyScrapbooks/0037.jpg

    Store closed and was one of worst performing store then on federated department roster. The hotel roger smith was taken down for urban renewal.

  7. Anonymous
    February 4, 2010 at 10:08 pm

    The Stamford Bloomie’s used to supply real gift boxes (not that newer, flimsy cardboard fold-flat junk you have to assemble yourself) and to wrap them for Christmas at no charge.

    Those were the days.

    (And don’t even ask me about B. Altman’s.)

  8. greenmtnpunter
    February 5, 2010 at 7:58 am

    Tis true, it ain’t happenin’ on Main St despite what Obama’s ivory tower economic advisors. This is what happens when you put ideology ahead of what actually works. But what actually works, perhaps the only thing that works, is massive tax cuts.

    They should have gone with massive tax cuts right out of the chute: Payroll taxes, capital gains taxes, etc. That would provide a more immediate jolt for consumers and incentive for investors. Private sector employment could grow. It’s the only proven way. With a 10% across the board cut in government spending to accompany the tax cuts, the deficit would at least not balloon.

    On a more upbeat note, I watch the freightcar loading data as a key lead economic indicator and find that contrary to a common perception this year to date is showing a more steeply rising curve vs 08-09, and is lasting longer than it did in Jan-Feb ’09. It had already flattened out in ’09 at this time last year.

    This trend may be mainly due to replacing depleted inventories but inventory run down must take place before you can have new production. All commodities except forest products are showing good gains. The current volume is still 125-150,000 carloads behind the pace of two years ago so there is a long way to go yet. Another lead indicator, the Baltic Dry Index, the key lead indicator for world economic activity, is definitely moving up as well.

  9. '73Refugee
    February 5, 2010 at 9:01 am

    “what is it about economists that they keep getting surprised? ”

    They’re told to think that way. It’s all part of “the narrative.”

  10. vitabrevis
    February 5, 2010 at 9:57 am

    I can’t believe you couldn’t find Bloomies – it’s right down the street from Caldor!

    Jeeez!

  11. Pinzgauer
    February 5, 2010 at 10:40 am

    I think Obummer’s plan is working perfectly. Remember though what his plan is.
    By the way, did anyone hear Lech Walenza’s speech on the subject?