On September 24, Jason Ditz reported on Antiwar.com that “the FBI is confirming that this morning they began a number of raids against the homes of antiwar activists in Illinois, Minneapolis, Michigan, and North Carolina, claiming that they are ‘seeking evidence relating to activities concerning the material support of terrorism.’”
The Republicans have been crowing way too much too early. I’m afraid they’ll end up eating crow in November, and that Nancy Pelosi will have the last laugh (I can see her ugly, disgusting, botoxed victory-leer even now).
So the SurveyUSA poll has Rand Paul “only” up but 2% in a poll with a MoE of 4%? Maybe the poll is tightening but a Rasmussen poll of the same race from early September had Paul up by 15%. Say what you will about polling organizations and methodologies but I will put more credence with Rasmussen’s likely voter methods over those of any other organization.
For example, it’s worth noting that the SurveyUSA sample for this poll is 51 percent Democrat and 36 percent Republican. Compare that with the 2008 turnout in KY which was 47 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican and, doing the math, 15% Independent or “other”.
So in the ensuing two years, where every poll, including the extensive Pew poll on voter preferences, showing more self-identified Reps, fewer Dems and more conservative Indies, Survey USA expects there to be MORE Dems voting this year than in 2008. Toss in the enthusiasm factor which heavily favors the GOP and I think I smell a bit of manipulation in the SurveyUSA massaging of the raw data.
Wait for the next Rasmussen poll and, if Paul is below a 10% margin, I would say there is a real shift taking place. Otherwise, wishful thinking is at work for the Dems.
Just back from a week on the gorgeous beaches of South Carolina….don’t bother telling any low-country resident that Democrats are rising in the polls. What a flag-waving-gun-toting-Jesus-Saves-Land-of-Republicans!!! While I normally like diversity in my circle of friends to keep brain cells alive talking politics and life, it was utterly refreshing for eight days days to be devoid of Obama-defenders. I couldn’t live full-time in an environment that is so sterile (oops, I’ve been in Bedford for 25 years!!) but for a wee bit it was enjoyable. Bonus: gasoline was only $2.43/gallon. Double bonus: the marshlands were full of egrets and turtles. So beautiful.
Allahpundit says maybe not….
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/09/26/new-polls-show-fiorina-and-paul-fading-thanks-to-screwy-samples/
Check and clean your weapons?
America is a police state?
Paul Craig Roberts
September 25, 2010
On September 24, Jason Ditz reported on Antiwar.com that “the FBI is confirming that this morning they began a number of raids against the homes of antiwar activists in Illinois, Minneapolis, Michigan, and North Carolina, claiming that they are ‘seeking evidence relating to activities concerning the material support of terrorism.’”
screwy samples in the BI cited polls.
barack hussein obama gun salesman of the year, two years in a row. his hope and change inspired a doubling of ammunition sales. yes, we can!
sadly, all my guns and ammo were lost in a boating accident
I don’t buy it. Polls and statistics can be manipulated. Surely the sheeple will arise from their penfolds in a great, wooly mass!
The Republicans have been crowing way too much too early. I’m afraid they’ll end up eating crow in November, and that Nancy Pelosi will have the last laugh (I can see her ugly, disgusting, botoxed victory-leer even now).
Ugh!
Locked and loaded.
So the SurveyUSA poll has Rand Paul “only” up but 2% in a poll with a MoE of 4%? Maybe the poll is tightening but a Rasmussen poll of the same race from early September had Paul up by 15%. Say what you will about polling organizations and methodologies but I will put more credence with Rasmussen’s likely voter methods over those of any other organization.
For example, it’s worth noting that the SurveyUSA sample for this poll is 51 percent Democrat and 36 percent Republican. Compare that with the 2008 turnout in KY which was 47 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican and, doing the math, 15% Independent or “other”.
So in the ensuing two years, where every poll, including the extensive Pew poll on voter preferences, showing more self-identified Reps, fewer Dems and more conservative Indies, Survey USA expects there to be MORE Dems voting this year than in 2008. Toss in the enthusiasm factor which heavily favors the GOP and I think I smell a bit of manipulation in the SurveyUSA massaging of the raw data.
Wait for the next Rasmussen poll and, if Paul is below a 10% margin, I would say there is a real shift taking place. Otherwise, wishful thinking is at work for the Dems.
Just back from a week on the gorgeous beaches of South Carolina….don’t bother telling any low-country resident that Democrats are rising in the polls. What a flag-waving-gun-toting-Jesus-Saves-Land-of-Republicans!!! While I normally like diversity in my circle of friends to keep brain cells alive talking politics and life, it was utterly refreshing for eight days days to be devoid of Obama-defenders. I couldn’t live full-time in an environment that is so sterile (oops, I’ve been in Bedford for 25 years!!) but for a wee bit it was enjoyable. Bonus: gasoline was only $2.43/gallon. Double bonus: the marshlands were full of egrets and turtles. So beautiful.
EOS -
Why deprive yourself of such nirvana?
ff,
Our truck doesn’t have a gun rack. We’d never fit in.