Go figure: the market is back, and it seems crazy high to me

176 Shore Road

Priced at $2.999 million back in 2008. $2.329 for a building lot still strikes me as excessive. Not for these buyers, though.

75 Summit

Asked $1.495, under contract. Whatever.

61 Indian Field Rad

 

I was out with a client just a few days ago and she expressed interest in this house, priced at $2.295. I told her she was nuts and wouldn’t show it. Under contract.

I think these are aberrations and that the market will continue to decline. But I’d hate to be one of those bears who predicted the bust of the dot.com bubble five years too soon – they lost all their clients because they cost them a fortune. Who wants to be right too early? But still, I do not understand these prices.

12 Comments

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12 responses to “Go figure: the market is back, and it seems crazy high to me

  1. Dan

    This is crazy. Especially Indian Field Road – All that I-95 and truck traffic!

  2. Cos Cobber

    61 Indian Field Road is on the market and already under contract?
    Its time to dust off my ‘make me move’ shingle on zillow.

  3. Patrick

    Indian field is a really nice house. Old house with good bones and redone nicely. Not a lot of houses in the $2m category with this kind of detail and space…although indian field is just way too busy for my taste.

    Chris – in terms of the market, I think you’re a bit off. I agree the prices seem high, but in general I think we bottomed last year and are now on our way up. Just like people have difficulty predicting the top – those same people have difficulty predicting the bottom.

    I get a few chuckles reading some of your posts from late 2006 dismissing that Greenwich could ever experience a significant drop in real estate prices….let’s see where this ends up.

    • Patrick- I don’t disagree, especially about my dismissal of the sub-prime mortgage bust affecting Greenwich’s market in 2006, but Indian Field is about our busiest street in town and, while I’ve sold houses there, I’d have never thought a $2.3 million price would carry. But as I hope you’ve noticed, I’m always ready to admit how wrong I can be. This is a blog based on my opinions, ones I hope are informed by facts but are still just one man’s opinion, after all – hence the title, “For What It’s Worth”-in many cases, maybe nothing at all.

  4. Inagua

    “I think these are aberrations and that the market will continue to decline.”

    The Greenwich market stopped declining last summer. The worriers were wrong. The economy is limping along. Lots of people are making good money. And enough of them want Greenwich to stabilize the local housing market.

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  6. Readytobuy2

    Chris, agree with you.
    These are the earlypanickers, thinking the market is on its way up,and want to get ahead of the market.
    There are also the outsiders/out of towners who believe what their real estate agents are telling them, and you know how that turned out the last time around! Or the guys with bonus money to spare
    And lastly, there are the ones who have been waiting in the wings to buy (with cash/financing all ready) for a couple of years now. They’re ready to go, knowing it doesn’t matter that much whether they buy now or at the end of the summer, since they plan on buying this season anyway. Thats about the reasoning that sums up these buyer groups right now.

    To quote you from previous posts (yes, some of us are Prof. CF students),
    its not as if the Greenwich market will suddenly tank some more nor will it go up that drastically. It will keep chugging along, albeit at a healthier pace than before, and maybe even see some decline, when some earlier long standing high priced houses will start to show their market corrections, but your ( ? ) axiom holds true: If you see something that you like in your price range, especially if its newly renovated, go for it, it may not last long.
    I think we’re ready to go too, in the coming months, and quite sure we’re not alone.

  7. Flyman in Rivvy

    The problem with your forcasting is that you don’t follow the Manhatatan RE close enough. That market has been improving for q, is the job market

  8. Patrick

    CF – I do give you a lot of credit for at least listening to the other side. If I was writing a blog in 2006, I probably would have predicted a 10% increase for the next five years…anyway maybe some hope that you won’t have to practice law anytime soon.

  9. Out looking In

    What most people don’t realize about illiquid markets is that they are still controlled by Supply (sellers) and Demand (buyers)…and emotions….I’m still shocked by how many morons still believe that “renting” is throwing money down the drain…somehow, they do not consider “interest” as “rent on money paid to lender” (okay, econo-speak). No, interest is somehow not included in teh calculation. I’m also shocked by how many people don’t understand that they are “leveraged” speculators when they purchase a homw, sometimes by 10 or 15 to 1….we as a nation have learned jack shit about much over the past five years…and I still marvel at how the Tea Partier/monied crowd have actually pitted union workers of different stripes against EACH OTHER while they abscond with even more of this nation’s wealth…and they don’t get it!!! no health care for me- none for you- but I’ll be a lap dog for the man on the hill..

  10. cowboy up

    No doubt the energy has changed in our markets, but thats typical of the spring in an historical sense. Check the activity levels for the last 60 days with closings, signed contracts and accepted offers. Hasn’t has that kind of vibe in years… BTW, if you haven’t seen it, the home on Summit is absolutely immaculate and totally ” bring your tooth brush ” kind of home. I also think your price is wrong here. The brochure I have says it’s $ 1,429,000

  11. Captain Obvious

    Houses in Greenwich cost a lot of money. When a buyer and seller agree to transact, they set the market. To disagree with the outcome of an arms length negotiation is foolish. Spring has sprung and you will continue to see sales that cause you to scratch your head. Don’t fight it. CF you are just too darned cranky. Embrace the recovery or get left behind.