(Feel free to completely disregard what follows as it is based entirely on viewing houses with either clients or on recent open houses and there’s been no review of actual statistics)
I sense that the $2-$2.5 million range is now, for the most part, offering reasonably-priced houses in comparison to the $4 and up range. The few houses in that upper range that do seem to offer value have usually been reduced from the mid-to-high fives, while those that started in the $4s and have stayed there feel, to me, more like they belong in the $3s or even lower.
If the unwisely-priced $4 houses do drop down it will presumably squeeze the existing $3s and they, in turn, may eventually make the current $2.5 inventory look overpriced. As of now I haven’t seen that happening on a wide scale so the $2s continue to look good.
You missed your calling as a stock analyst Chris! They used to pay seven figures (before the decimal) for that kind of commentary. Out of curiosity, if the 2-2.5mil range is “reasonably” priced, what makes the 3s and upper 3s unwisely priced? Are they asking too much per incremental square foot, finishings, land value? Honest question- not being a wise-guy…
Right now, they – and again, I’m speaking of the general group not a particular house- not to offer enough quality difference, be it land, finish work, location etc. to justify their million dollar jump. To use a specific house from a higher bracket, 145 Parsonage, priced at $4.9, compared favorably with houses asking, but not getting mid-sixes. It sold in a matter of days during a period of almost complete dormancy in the $5-$9 range.
I don’t think Parsonage was underpriced, I think it’s competitors we’re and remain too high.
What would you consider to be a good benchmark of a fairly valued 2-2.5mm midcountry home (either recent sale or on the market?) We’ve all seen how Riverside/Old Greenwich , especially south of the tracks, has “recovered” nicely in that price range.
Well I know of one that I have under contract but was never listed so it won’t be reported for a while. Close to town, extremely desire able street and a house that is livable and intended to be lived in for a few more years before it’s replaced in fact I have two such sales pending- in both cases though, it’s really more of a land sale with the house thrown in for free.
A better example would be that very nice house on North Street just after, I think, Ivanhoe. Can’t remember its street number but Ellen Mosher listed it. Decent back yard, not huge, though, fairly new construction with fresh renovations, modern layout with large eat in kitchen, playroom etc. if I remember it was priced a little bit under its 2004 purchase price of $2.4 (?) and considering those renovations was a good deal. Not sure if it’s closed but it had multiple offers culminating in a contract in just a few weeks.
I’ll prowl the MLS later and get you this one’s exact address and price history as well as other examples.
UPDATE: Okay, I got most of that North Street listing wrong. It’s number 420, was built in 1948, renovated 9transformed, really0 in 2002 and sold to these owners for $2.862 in 2003. Listed this year at $2.795, contract in 17 days. but I did get it right that it was a very attractive house.
Slim pickings for this range (any range) in central Greenwich this year, but 4 Dogwood, off Pecksland, sold for $2.2 three days ago. 44 Parsonage was old and a bit funky but with real charm. Sold for $2.650 a little while ago, after selling for $2.872 in 2003.21 Flager will probably turn out to be a land sale but at its selling price of $2.425 the very nice house sitting on it was a screaming deal – live in it as is very happily or, if you must, tear it down. based on another deal I have going very close to this one, $2.45 for 2+ acres is just right. Plus that free house.
Thanks Chris!
you give too much away for free to these creeps who go elsewhere and use another agent!!!
There are few deals in Greenwich.
But there sure are a lot of unsold houses. Coincidence?
Out of 30 houses sold for over $2 million in Riverside for the past 12 months, 29 was spot on or above town assessment/0.7. There is only one exception for which I see reasons: swamp/dilapidated house.
I clearly see the market healing.
Except that town assessments for Riverside are understated . . .
the areas that have done the best for the NY Metro area are the ones that have attracted Manhattan transplants and first time homebuyers, simply because they are the only ones who did not get crushed during the housing crash over the last 6 years
Manhattan is just about back to it’s pre-crisis highs!
So it makes sense that starter homes (in lower priced neighborhoods) as well as areas like Old Greenwich and Riverside (where small lots and being close to neighbors is not perceived as a problem compared to densely populated Manhattan, and also where walking to schools/train/town and “neighborhood feel” is desired) have outperformed the mid-country estates and trade-up market for young execs
$2-2.5mm is probably the right price level until banks start paying cash bonuses again
Do you think there is some sort of utility or marginal price curve that would reflect expected fall in price from equivalent Greenwich house price the further away you get from greenwich? eg, do prices drop faster at some mileage point ? eg, 15 miles from Gwich, prices are 15% less, 50 miles , 50%? Or at 50 miles, its 65& drop? Curious what everyone thinks.
Agreed that for uper end to do well the street has to come back with high cash bonuses
That makes a lot of sense, whatever. Unfortunately, the only ones left at street firms are the undesirables, while the smart crowd went to the buyside.
KMA,
It is indeed the “suckers” who are still left at the banks at this point.
But it is still a zero-sum game – and all those new hedgies competing for a fixed pie only makes the game harder and less lucrative for everyone.
There is a massive shakeout occurring and probably continues until most of the “smart crowd” on the buyside either goes back to the sellside (or worse – become a broker for OTC markets?) or quits finance altogether….