Investment banks’ profit structure is being permanently degraded.
Europe’s failure to resolve its sovereign-debt crisis will force investment-banking chiefs in the region to consider shuttering entire businesses rather than rely on piecemeal job reductions to revive profit.
Dealmaking fees may drop 25 percent this year from 2009, when the crisis began in Greece, research firm Freeman & Co. estimates. European banks have cut about 172,000 positions since then, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, the same strategy they used after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed in 2008.
The game plan won’t work again as rising capital requirements and declining business alter the investment-banking landscape, investors and analysts say. New rules will reduce return on equity by 6 percentage points from about 14 percent in the first half of 2011, according to consulting firm Bain & Co. Banks that relied on record low interest rates and a flood of cheap funding from the European Central Bank to delay deciding which units to close will be compelled to make choices.
“Investment banks have to shrink and do more than cut a little bit here and there,” said Lutz Roehmeyer, who helps oversee 10 billion euros ($12.5 billion) at Landesbank Berlin Investment in Berlin. “There’s too much politics and too little economics going on. They want to keep certain businesses for as long as possible.”
The Bloomberg Industries European Investment Banks Index, which tracks UBS,Barclays Plc , Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group AG, has dropped 5.3 percent this year compared with a 14 percent gain in the 329-member MSCI World Financials Index. European banks that have investment-banking businesses trade at an average of 62 percent of book value, while European financial firms trade at about 90 percent.
The five U.S. lenders with investment-banking and trading units – Bank of America Corp.,Citigroup Inc. (C), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) andMorgan Stanley (MS) – reported their lowest first-half revenue since 2008 and have stock prices that value the firms at a lower percentage of book value than banks without capital-markets units.






