Daily Archives: November 8, 2012

Too soon? Perfect timing, I’d say

Still there?

Some Obama supporter has put his Hampton’s waterfront home on the market for $30 million, possibly hoping to escape the next tax hike his friend has planned. Business Insider implies that it’s somehow heartless (or stupid – hard to tell exactly what the author’s getting at) to list a place so soon after Hurricane Sandy but I disagree. If this place survived Sandy unscathed, then what better selling point can there be? Buyer is piloted out to the town and sees massive destruction everywhere, then sets down on this perfect, untouched lawn? His check book will be out before he sets his first tasseled  loafer on the sand.

Of course, if there is no longer a beach here, if Sandy wiped out that lawn, then Business Insider is right: the guy’s a moron.

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Could the settled science of the 1970s have been right?

 

Don’t blame Bush

Swedish scientists say that only CO2 emissions are preventing an ice age. “Baloney!” Cry the school children of America, “our teachers have told us we’re doomed to drown!” Maybe so, but these Swedes aren’t the first to predict an ice age and perhaps: just a suggestion here, we might want to take a deep breath before implementing Obama’s stated intention to shut down our economy. Perhaps.

Scientists:
Global Cooling is Here (Don J. Easterbrook, Ph.D. Professor of Environmental Geology)
Global warming freeze? (David Deming, Ph.D. Professor of Geology and Geophysics)
Read the sunspots: Prepare now for dangerous global cooling (R. Tim Patterson, Ph.D. Professor of Earth Science)
Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh (Philip K. Chapman, B.S. Physics and Mathematics, M.S., Ph.D. Instrumentation, MIT)
The Coming Ice Age (David Deming, Ph.D. Professor of Geology and Geophysics)
There IS a problem with global warming… it stopped in 1998 (Robert M. Carter, Ph.D. Professor of Environmental and Earth Science)
While the sun sleeps (Henrik Svensmark, Ph.D. Director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research, Danish National Space Center)
World is getting colder (David J. Bellamy, B.Sc. Ph.D. C.Biol. FIBiol. Professor of Botany)
Year of Global Cooling (David Deming, Ph.D. Professor of Geology and Geophysics)

Historic:
1895 – Prospects of another Glacial Period (PDF) (The New York Times)
1912 – Sees Glacia Era Coming; Prof. Schmidt Warns Us of an Encroaching Ice Age (The New York Times)

1969 – New Ice Age Threat Seen (St. Petersburg Times, January 15, 1969)
1969 – Worrying About a New Ice Age (The New York Times, February 23, 1969)
1969 – Ice Age Biggest Threat According to Archeologist (The Hartford Courant, November 21, 1969)
1970 – Colder Winters Held Dawn of New Ice Age – Scientists See Ice Age In the Future (The Washington Post, January 11, 1970)
1970 – Is Mankind Manufacturing a New Ice Age for Itself? (L.A. Times, January 15, 1970)
1970 – New Ice Age May Descend On Man (Sumter Daily Item, January 26, 1970)
1970 – Pollution Could Cause Ice Age, Agency Reports (St. Petersburg Times, March 4, 1970)
1970 – Pollution Called Ice Age Threat (St. Petersburg Times, June 26, 1970)
1971 – U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming (The Washington Post, July 9, 1971)
1971 – Ice Age Around the Corner (Chicago Tribune, July 10, 1971)
1971 – New Ice Age Coming – It’s Already Getting Colder (L.A. Times, October 24, 1971)
1972 – Air pollution may cause ice age (Free-Lance Star, February 3, 1972)
1972 – Scientist Says New ice Age Coming (The Ledger, February 13, 1972)
1972 – Scientist predicts new ice age (Free-Lance Star, September 11, 1972)
1972 – British expert on Climate Change says Says New Ice Age Creeping Over Northern Hemisphere (Lewiston Evening Journal, September 11, 1972)
1972 – Climate Seen Cooling For Return Of Ice Age (Portsmouth Times, ‎September 11, 1972‎)
1972 – New Ice Age Slipping Over North (Press-Courier, September 11, 1972)
1972 – Ice Age Begins A New Assault In North (The Age, September 12, 1972)
1972 – Weather To Get Colder (Montreal Gazette, ‎September 12, 1972‎)
1972 – British climate expert predicts new Ice Age (The Christian Science Monitor, September 23, 1972)
1972 – Scientist Sees Chilling Signs of New Ice Age (L.A. Times, September 24, 1972)
1972 – Another Ice Age? (Time Magazine, November 13, 1972)
1973 – The Ice Age Cometh (The Saturday Review, March 24, 1973)
1973 – Weather-watchers think another ice age may be on the way (The Christian Science Monitor, December 11, 1973)
1974 – New evidence indicates ice age here (Eugene Register-Guard, May 29, 1974)
1974 – Another Ice Age? (Time Magazine, June 24, 1974)
1974 – 2 Scientists Think ‘Little’ Ice Age Near (The Hartford Courant, August 11, 1974)
1974 – Ice Age, worse food crisis seen (The Chicago Tribune, October 30, 1974)
1974 – Believes Pollution Could Bring On Ice Age (Ludington Daily News, December 4, 1974)
1974 – Pollution Could Spur Ice Age, Nasa Says (Beaver Country Times, ‎December 4, 1974‎)
1974 – Air Pollution May Trigger Ice Age, Scientists Feel (The Telegraph, ‎December 5, 1974‎)
1974 – More Air Pollution Could Trigger Ice Age Disaster (Daily Sentinel – ‎December 5, 1974‎)
1974 – Scientists Fear Smog Could Cause Ice Age (Milwaukee Journal, December 5, 1974)
1975 – Climate Changes Called Ominous (PDF) (The New York Times, January 19, 1975)
1975 – Climate Change: Chilling Possibilities (Science News, March 1, 1975)
1975 – B-r-r-r-r: New Ice Age on way soon? (The Chicago Tribune, March 2, 1975)
1975 – Cooling Trends Arouse Fear That New Ice Age Coming (Eugene Register-Guard, ‎March 2, 1975‎)
1975 – Is Another Ice Age Due? Arctic Ice Expands In Last Decade (Youngstown Vindicator – ‎March 2, 1975‎)
1975 – Is Earth Headed For Another Ice Age? (Reading Eagle, March 2, 1975)
1975 – New Ice Age Dawning? Significant Shift In Climate Seen (Times Daily, ‎March 2, 1975‎)
1975 – There’s Troublesome Weather Ahead (Tri City Herald, ‎March 2, 1975‎)
1975 – Is Earth Doomed To Live Through Another Ice Age? (The Robesonian, ‎March 3, 1975‎)
1975 – The Ice Age cometh: the system that controls our climate (The Chicago Tribune, April 13, 1975)
1975 – The Cooling World (Newsweek, April 28, 1975)
1975 – Scientists Ask Why World Climate Is Changing; Major Cooling May Be Ahead (PDF) (The New York Times, May 21, 1975)
1975 – In the Grip of a New Ice Age? (International Wildlife, July-August, 1975)
1975 – Oil Spill Could Cause New Ice Age (Milwaukee Journal, December 11, 1975)
1976 – Worrisome CIA Report; Even U.S. Farms May be Hit by Cooling Trend (U.S. News & World Report, May 31, 1976)
1976 – The Cooling: Has the Next Ice Age Already Begun? (Book, 1976)
1977 – The Big Freeze (Time Magazine, January 31, 1977)
1977 – The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age (Book, 1977)
1977 – We Will Freeze in the Dark (Capital Cities Communications Documentary, Host: Nancy Dickerson, April 12, 1977)
1978 – The New Ice Age (Book, 1978)
1978 – Little Ice Age: Severe winters and cool summers ahead (Calgary Herald, January 10, 1978)
1978 – Winters Will Get Colder, ‘we’re Entering Little Ice Age’ (Ellensburg Daily Record, January 10, 1978)
1978 – Geologist Says Winters Getting Colder (Middlesboro Daily News, January 16, 1978)
1978 – It’s Going To Get Colder (Boca Raton News, ‎January 17, 1978‎)
1978 – Believe new ice age is coming (The Bryan Times, March 31, 1978)
1978 – The Coming Ice Age (In Search Of TV Show, Season 2, Episode 23, Host: Leonard Nimoy, May 1978)
1978 – An Ice Age Is Coming Weather Expert Fears (Milwaukee Sentinel, November 17, 1978)
1979 – New ice age almost upon us? (The Christian Science Monitor, November 14, 1979)

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Accepted offers

19 Pintail

19 Pintail Lane, asking $1.199 (down from $1.399) has a buyer. Very decent house, I thought. There are things I’d want to do with it, including blowing out the kitchen and, probably, pushing the master bedroom out ten feet or so, but lots of good working material here and of course, livable exactly as is – after all, it’s occupied now – buyers sometimes overlook that fact.

35 Bramble Lane

35 Bramble Lane, still under construction and asking $3.4 million, is gone. Since it hasn’t been completed I offer no opinion on its merits but $3.4 is the right range for this street. My personal preference would have been the 2007-built house across the street at 26 Bramble. Built to exceptional standards, great layout and had its own gate opening to Eastern Middle School’s playing fields and tennis courts, so you had something like a fifteen-acre park as your back yard. But that one went very quickly just two weeks ago – I wouldn’t be surprised if the buyer for 35 was a disappointed bidder or worse,  looker, on 26.

12 Mary Lane

And after reporting an accepted offer on October 23rd, 12 Mary Lane, $795,000 is back on the market, that first deal having apparently fallen though for unspecified reasons. Incidences like this are common, which explains the reluctance of brokers to report accepted offers, rather than executed contracts (all contingencies having been met); no one wants to look at a house that already has a pending deal, so the house is basically off the market for weeks, which hurts all the more when that deal falls apart. The GAR requires that accepted offers be reported immediately, one of the only instances I can think of where the board favors transparency and dissemination of information and, ironically, the one instance where I think an exception to a general policy of releasing all relevant information as quickly as possible should be made – this new rule hurts homeowners. Before this rule was enacted, listing agents would tell another agent interested in showing a house if there was an accepted offer pending and leave it to her and her clients whether they still wanted to see it. Disclosing that status to the entire marketplace, however, kills all interest from the inception, with no real benefit in exchange. Or that’s my opinion, anyway.

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Mid-Country market may be dozing, but it’s not dead

7 Wynn Lane

7 Wynn Lane, asking $4.495 has an executed contract. Sandy Shaw, listing agent, some scrofulous (big word, Walt – look it up) agent in a pickup truck represented the buyers. The house last traded in 2003 for $4.5 million and started this time at $4.850. While final price won’t be disclosed until next month, it’s obvious – duh – that prices have retreated from their high but also, and buyers should remember this, there is a pool of buyers who are still quite willing to commit to a house when they see value. See yesterday’s discussion of Hope Farm Road’s sale at $3.5 for an example. If you find a house you like and can get it for a fair price, don’t assume you’re the only one out in the market looking for the same thing; often, you aren’t.

These are the prettiest two acres in the mid-country, in my completely unbiased opinion. And there’s a nice house on those two acres, with a pool, too. I like this deal but then, of course I would.

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Stupid stupid stupid

New York AG goes after Craig’s List “gougers”. I understand that politicians have to do lots of dumb things in order to pander to their dumb constituents, but interfering with the free market disrupts the efficient delivery of the very goods and services most needed in a post-disaster area. With the possible exception of Paul Krugman, who seems immune to economic theory, there’s not an economist out there who supports these prosecutions and likewise, I know of few politicians with the understanding and courage to stand up to the mob’s blood lust. That includes Freddy Camillo, by the way, who introduced a “price-gouging” bill of his own in the last legislative session. I voted for him anyway – he’s a good guy – but I intend to bend his ear on he subject when I next encounter him.

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When guns are outlawed…

 

One shot, well placed, should do it

Looting, robberies spread in Hurricane Sandy disaster areas. I’m not necessarily suggesting that Greenwich residents add a weapon to their other storm preparedness equipment – we have a most excellent police force – but I don’t imagine these Staten Island and the Jersey Shore neighborhoods would be suffering such predations if the invading thugs knew that their would-be victims were all armed and dangerous.

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The Professor makes an interesting point

Post-election observation from InstaPundit:

Finally: I keep hearing demographic deepthink about population shifts and how if Romney had gotten as many Latinos as George W. Bush he’d have won. Maybe so. But if Romney had gotten as many Republicans as John McCain he’d have won, too. I kept going on and on about the importance of showing up, and that seems to have been what mattered. Why didn’t people show up? Good question. Was it undercover anti-Mormonism? Or was it simply that Romney — who campaigned for independents and deliberately distanced himself from the Tea Party — didn’t pay enough attention to the base? Maybe the numbers will answer this, but obviously the Obama people thought this was a base-turnout election and Romney’s people didn’t. Obama’s people were right.

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Sale and a comtract

 

38 Carey Road

38 Carey Road, Riverside, asked $910,000 back in June, 2011, sold now for $715,000. I really like this street, especially (well perhaps only) the side of the street that backs up to Mianus Pond. Swimming, canoeing and, appropriate for this coming winter, it looks like, ice fishing (something Peg in Minnesota’s clients might appreciate, even if they were reluctant to cough up quite this much money for the opportunity). Great spot, nice neighbors, on either side of the street. I think $715,000 for a fixer-upper or even a building lot is a good deal and if I had the money, I’d have been tempted.

In a more expensive area of town, 7 Oakwood Lane has an accepted offer after just 22 days so it’s fair to guess that it’s going for close to its asking price of $1.995. That’s for 1.5 acres in the RA-1 zone, with new house and pool plans already approved. Again, right about where land sales in this area have been selling for.

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