Perusing tomorrow’s broker open house list I notice that sellers are still holding firm, God bless them. 63 N. Maple, a house large enough to accommodate a family but on a road unfit for same, has dropped from $5.1 million in May, 2008 to $4.995 today. Further up the road on North Maple that spec house built sideways to the road is still asking over $6 million and an older house on Pheasant is touting its “huge price reduction”, from $4.295 to $3.994.
Sellers can do what they want and that’s what they’re doing, but just for the record, here are some numbers to consider:
Houses for sale priced over $4.795 million: 183
Sold this year: 18
Sold this month: 3
And for builders:
Spec houses for sale above $5 million: 57
Sold this year: 10
Sold this June: 2
- 44 Husted
This is an okay house on Husted – dated, but nicely maintained and in a good location. It sold for $2.5 million back in 2000 and that buyer, perhaps a bit too exuberant over the march of prices here in Greenwich, tried to get $4.395 for it in 2006. When that didn’t work, he did some modest work on it and finally sold it for $3.1 million in April 2007. The next owner, clearly delusional, listed it for $4.595 million in August that same year. Now, several price cuts and brokers later, it’s asking $3.795 million. Well, it’s better – priced than it was.
I toured a house yesterday that was nice enough: renovated within the past few years, pool, decent, if small yard, etc. But I was struck that its price, in the mid-threes, was what I would have expected to see in 2005 or 2006, when it would have probably produced a buyer in the low threes. Today, I’d have priced it for a million less. I’ll be curious to see how far off I am.
556 Riversville Road is reported as under contract today, after it dropped from $5.295 million to $3.695 – I assume the contract price was lower, which is interesting, because in 2003 the sellers paid $3.5 million for the place and then poured in lots of money renovating it. If this price is typical of today’s market, and I think it is, then when pricing your renovated house, forget anything you spent on it and figure out what it was worth in 2002 – 2003 and there’s your price.
Jim Foote of Raveis listed this house on Gregory Road in Cos Cob April 6 for $969,000. Eleven days later, Nancy Healy (Shore & Country) had a buyer. That’s how this process is supposed to work. What happens more often is that the seller lists it at, say, $1.075 million, waits 320 days and sells it at $925,000. This way’s less painful and far more productive.
A house showed up today with a new, lower price and because I’ve seen it for sale seemingly forever I thought I’d look up its history. Interesting. Built in 1996, it was put up for sale in 1998 for $1.2. It didn’t sell and the builder either moved in or rented it out for awhile and then brought it back in 2003 at $2.475. That didn’t fly so he gradually dropped the price to $1.950 but it expired unsold in 2004. After another hiatus he tried again last year and it’s been for sale ever since, starting at $2.5 and now down to just about $2 million. According to the town, it was worth $2.1 million in 2005, so today’s value would be, if you play the game I’ve been playing with these numbers, 70 % of that, or $1.470,000. That seems about right to me – I hope the owner perseveres this time and finally sells the place because I’m curious to see how the 70% rule works out on this one.
5 Station Drive
This Cos Cob listing illustrates the difficulty in even attempting to calculate current values from old asking prices. Built in 1999, the owner renovated it in 2005 and tried to sell it for $1.850, eventually dropping it to $1.565 before it expired unsold near the end of the year. In 2008 he tried again, listing it at $2.2 million. he’s now dropped it all the way down to $1.479 which, compared to it’s ask of over $2 million, looks like a significant reduction – about a third, I believe. But since it didn’t sell at $1.565 in 2005, it’s a fair assumption that it wasn’t worth that then, so its new price, while decent, doesn’t really tell us anything about what’s happening to prices.
So why bring it up? Because there are hundreds of houses in inventory with similar price histories right now and, looking over all the reductions one is tempted to think that we’ve really dropped our prices. I’m not sure we have, if I look at actual sales prices, not asking prices, and compare those to the current price. Keep dropping, is, I suppose, my point.