June 30, 2009 · 10:59 am

All real estate is local but ….

Case Shiller Index doesn’t have anything encouraging to say about new home prices. Down 40 – 50% from peak, with more room to go.

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7 responses to “All real estate is local but ….”

  1. Cos Cobber
    June 30, 2009 at 11:30 am

    CF, I guess I am an idiot because I see this 10 city composite chart as a buy signal. It clearly shows RE is down, well below past price points. Sure, a buyer may lose a figure, but they are unlikely to lose their head (like the guy they are buying from) from further price erosion.

    All real estate is local however. What you need to find is the C-S chart for the NYC market and better yet, a chart for each westchester, greenwich and fairfield county. I suspect that chart will warrant a wait and see approach as we have further to fall.

  2. Krazy Kat
    June 30, 2009 at 11:34 am

    Come on Chris, even Shiller finds something modestly uplifting in this report:

    June 30 (Bloomberg) — Home prices saw a “striking improvement in the rate of decline” and trading in funds launched today suggest investors believe the U.S. housing slump is nearing a bottom, said Yale University economist Robert Shiller.

    “At this point, people are thinking the fall is over,” Shiller, cofounder of the home price index that bears his name, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today. “The market is predicting the declines are over.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atwY13VdQtLk

  3. anonymous
    June 30, 2009 at 11:48 am

    Wouldn’t extrapolate C-S data to $1MM+ mkt anywhere

    More useful for comparing <10yo, ~$250K tract houses in various suburbs across US (and would want to know which specific suburban corridors are included in data for any urban region to find reasonable comparables)

  4. Retired IB'er
    June 30, 2009 at 12:01 pm

    The only reason there was a slight improvement in the rate of deterioration (still going down) is because the mid/upper level has NOT YET corrected to the degree the lower end has to date and there has been relatively little volume in the higher end driving the composite numbers.

    Be very careful when drawing conclusions that are dramatically impacted by the mix (i.e. more low end home sales vs. high end).

  6. fred
    June 30, 2009 at 11:47 pm

    anybody see the latest Obama labor report that concluded the stimulus was working as, ‘last month 150k new jobs were created in new housing construction’

  7. fred
    June 30, 2009 at 11:52 pm

    Anonymous 12:37

    McMansions in Greenwich are on the 30 month waitlist…….