Some statistics

Russ Pruner’s firm, Shore & Country, always has a good data base on line and he’s got an interesting chart up now, showing the fall off in volume and sales in the first half of 2009 from the first half of 2008.  Check the entire chart, but here’s a brief summary:

Single Family Homes        2008                                        2009                           % change

Units:                                   270                                           111                                        (59%)

$ Vol.                             $768,659,932                 $250,800,602                          (67%)

Avg. Price                     $2,846,889                       $2,259,465                                (21%)

Med. Price                     $1,950,000                      $1,405,000                              (28%)

 

Keep in mind that by 2008 the market was already starting its dive. For the full year, 2008’s unit sales were off 37% from 2007 and dollar voulme off 35%. I’ll dig around to get the six month data.

9 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

9 responses to “Some statistics

  1. tom

    these are coincident statistics. Check out the stock market, now today spiking towards 10,000 Dow. It is telling me the following – $23 trillion in stimulus has succeeded in reflating the economy. Guess who benefited BY FAR the most? The bankers. Where do they want to live? Greenwich. My prediction is that you will see a minor feeding frenzy this fall as bankers count their chips and take all of the reasonably priced inventory off the table. My advice to buyers is that you will not see $700 per square foot in good locations for very long. BTW I am not calling for a return to 2007-8 prices, but the bottom is in, in my opinion, and the market will stabilize here for several years.

  2. anon 2

    I think you’re wrong Tom.
    Bear Stearns bankers = 90% of stock wealth destroyed
    Lehman bankers = 100% of stock wealth and deferred compensation plan destroyed
    AIG = well, ok, I guess some of them got paid
    UBS, ML, etc. = many layoffs and those still employed got a lot of stock for bonuses

    No one will suddenly have money in the fall. Bonuses are paid later (Dec-Feb) and will be heavy again with stock this year. And for those who do get paid well, there are probably 20-40% fewer of them employed now, so there are fewer buyers.

    Wait until the severance packages and emergency funds of those laid off run out and their houses start hitting the market. And the pre-school-year buying pressure is starting to disappear now, not to return until the Spring.

    Oh, and interest rates going up will be a nice headwind, too.

  3. shoeless

    Um, they’ll have to pay cash. Banks want three years of income tax returns and won’t accept bonuses as income at the moment. To get a jumbo now requires 30-40% down. The $3mm and over crowd may have a feeding frenzy. The paupers in the $1-$2 range, not so much.

  4. anonymous

    Doubt any smart financier will place much of his liquid net worth in an illiquid asset like a house w/uncertain future value (beyond decent primary shelter)…esp with much of one’s net worth tied up in restricted IB equity….or tax-deferred compensation/gains for many younger HF/PE guys

    Just-released GS ’08 bonus data is telling….no one, not even the top prop traders, received more than ~$900K in cash for their ’08 bonus…so a piddly $450K post-tax cash bonus….doesn’t inspire extravagant house purchases

    And many of those with serious liquid net worth already own a decent house…

  5. Anonymous

    Chris,
    Can you tell by the
    ISPN whether Tom is Mad Monkey? He seems to have reduced his sq ft price but sounds similar.

    I met a new “friend” from Westin (Westport). She has a “unique” property and although, wants to move to East Village, where prices have fallen 30 per cent, she is confident that her property will sell. In fact, her realtor has told her that they have reached the bottom and have shown her a graph demonstrating an increase in sales.

    I explained that the houses selling in Greenwich are either waterfront or often heavily discounted. Also, that sales activity doesn’t necessarily mean that a sale is achievable, without those criteria being present.

    Have you considered a new blog? ‘What is it worth in Westport?’

    I sure that you need some new hate mail. It must be getting thin on the ground these days. Old news and all that!

    Hiram,
    Disclaimer
    Written from my Blackberry

  6. Retired IB'er

    Time will tell, but the market (stock) looks to be substantially ahead of itself. And if it isn’t, as one other poster pointed out, we should start to see interest rates going up.

    So it is hard for me to see the “housing rebound” currently being pushed by the “talking heads”.

    For an interesting chart on earnings (and why I think the stock mkt is way ahead of itself):

    http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090724.htm

  7. HG

    It is stunning to see 4,793 people in the Cuomo report receiving a bonus >$1 million in one of the worst years ever. However, even being generous and using pre-Obama tax rates*, doesn’t a $1 million bonus buy you only about 800 square feet at tom’s bottom?

    *From the recent health care press conference: “probably, new taxes to fund the plan will only be applied to families making more than $1 million.”

  8. tom

    ok good point. a $1million bonus after taxes equals 600G then borrow another $3MM from Wells Fargo at 5% and voila! welcome to your brand new home in Greenwich. And we aren’t really talking about people who earned a paltry million dollar bonus here.

    I know people at one hedge fund in Greenwich who have EXACTLY that deal. They aren’t the only ones. The party is on again, folks, it just won’t trade at 2008 levels (for about 15 years is my guess)

  9. Anonymous

    Tom,
    $3 mil loan costs $16,000 per month? What about school fees ? Another $6,000 per month for two children.

    We would have to take home $22,000 NET per month, for just those two items.
    Forget holidays, cars, skiing, entertaining, property taxes, housekeeping.
    The bonus went on the deposit $600K, and last years unpaid credit card bill.

    Who do you think we are ? Community Organisers?