Pravda along the Mianus

Just in time to please their Friday real estate advertisers, Greenwich Time is out with the front page news that home sales are up in Connecticut and, not content with that bit of misleading copywriting, a claim that “in Greenwich, sales and prices are up in July”. Up from where? And who gave them the statistics to back up that claim? Not I.

Here are some numbers on single family homes, all based on the Greenwich MLS records:

Sales (as of August 28), 2007: 600

”                    ”                          2008: 400

”                    ”                           2009: 264

Inventory (Aug. 28, 2007): 461

                                            2008: 561

                                            2009: 688

Sales between $300,000 – $499,000, 2007: 1

                                                                                2008: 12

                                                                                2009: 49

I’m still working on average and median prices but whatever  Greenwich Time used to deduce that “sales and prices” are up in July, is either so skewed or such a small sample that it’s worthless as a guide to what’s happening.

9 Comments

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9 responses to “Pravda along the Mianus

  1. Anon

    Maybe they meant July month vs. YAG?

  2. Resident

    It would appear that the ranks of RE brokers will be thinner as well. Interesting to see if the professionals end up in foreclosure too.

  3. Pete

    There may be insufficient volume and I have not weeded out the anomalies, but the following chart may be of interest. The “Average Ratio” in the chart is the sale price divided by the 70% assessment. These are closed sales from various sources.

  4. Pete

    SORRY – FORGOT TO PRINT CHART
    There may be insufficient volume and I have not weeded out the anomalies, but the following chart may be of interest. The “Average Ratio” in the chart is the sale price divided by the 70% assessment. These are closed sales from various sources.
    Average Volume % Price
    Ratio Change
    1st Qtr. 08 1.48 105
    2nd Qtr. 08 1.53 140 +3.38%
    3rd Qtr 08 1.52 132 -0.65%
    4th Qtr 08 1.37 30 -9.87
    1st half 09 1.22 95 -10.95%
    July 09 1.36 37 +11.48%

  5. Pete

    I don’t know why the table collapsed. May this will be clearer.

    1st Qtr. 2008
    Average Ratio: 1.48
    Volume: 105

    2nd Qtr. 2008
    Average Ratio: 1.53
    Volume: 140

    % Price Change from 1st Qtr.: + 3.38%
    3rd Qtr. 2008
    Average Ratio: 1.52
    Volume: 132
    % Price Change from 2nd Qtr.: -0.65%

    4th Qtr. 2008
    Average Ratio: 1.37
    Volume: 30
    % Price Change from 3rd Qtr.: -9.87%

    1st Half 2009
    Average Ratio: 1.22
    Volume: 95
    % Price Change from 4th Qtr.: -10.95%

    July 2009
    Average Ratio: 1.36
    Volume: 37
    % Price Change from 1st Half: +11.48%

  6. Cos Cobber

    Well, thats all I need, the recession is over as Pete demonstrates that pricing is up!

    Moving on…this list of the most expensive zip codes is fun.

    http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/26/most-expensive-zip-codes-lifestyle-real-estate-zip_full-list.html

    Really Walt, Cos Cob = South Bronx even though its #204 and the South Bronx, surprise, didn’t make the list?

  7. FlyAngler

    Chris:

    Clearly the reporter read my dialogue with one of the Anonymous boys about looking at month-to-month data trends rather than y-o-y or q-o-q. As I suggested then, the monthly trends are upward sloping.

    BTW, whatever happened to commenter CEA? I don’t recall seeing any input from her in quite some time (unless, of course, her husband got wind of her screen name and she changed handles….)

  8. FlyAngler

    I am sorry to hear that, especially since CEA’s analysis was typically interesting.

    CEA, if you are out there in stealth mode, this reader misses your involvment. More importantly, it is a relief to hear that you did not “disappear” due to ill health or worse.

  9. cos cobber

    CEA left the blog back in the spring. She posted an explanation as to why she was signing off.
    In short, her reason had to do with the content of the blog…I’ll leave at that since I didn’t quite see it her way.