So how we doin’?

Twelve houses have both gone to contract and sold this year and while that’s not a huge data base, it is manageable for a non-spread sheet guy like myself to analyze. Sales price to assessment is too limited, I found, because many of the houses either had no assessment or didn’t reflect the renovation/construction put into them. 

So for now, I just pulled their histories and compared final sales price to original ask price. That ratio is 71%, so it seems we still have sellers who are more optimistic than market reality permits.

Sales in Percentage classes:

90% + 2

80% + 2

70% + 1

60% + 4

50% + 3


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8 responses to “So how we doin’?

  1. Quant Head

    You’ve made it clear you don’t want to do a lot of work this weekend on this matter.

    Still, the expectation of normalcy in the data is that the frequency of examples around the ratio in question would bulge around the mean, and that we do not see.

    Therefore, your analysis (the smell of the market) should note that the transactions are divided into two groups – crushed delusional sellers – and in the happier class- those who listened to you.

    • christopherfountain

      This blog is 3/4 hobby. 1/4 work, Quant – you’re getting the hobby effort this weekend, it looks like. : )

  2. Retired IB'er

    I would have thought that a 29% (on avg.) would suggest that sellers are still VERY unrealistic about the current state of the market.

    Not to mention the median discount looks like it is more like 40%!

    • christopherfountain

      I veer from ironic understatement to wildly overstated rants. My psychiatrist is helping me with this.

  3. Retired IB'er

    christopherfountain said: “I veer from ironic understatement to wildly overstated rants. My psychiatrist is helping me with this.”

    Fair enough… but I bet you’re a hoot at a cocktail party (assuming you’re off your “meds” and unleashed)!

  4. Right wing homeless Veggie

    I listened to Mr. Fountain and we didn’t buy. I still don’t know which is worse, homeless or under water?

  5. sarnia

    Anyone know anything about 400 N Maple or 57 Hillside? Think they’ll trade at their asking price (both are asking around $1.9)?

    • christopherfountain

      400 N. Maple is 0.46 acre in a one-acre zone so FAR kills you. Assessment is $1 million.
      57 Hillside has been for sale, on and off, for five years (with time out for rentals, I think). Nice location, nice house but clearly didn’t attract buyers at its old asking prices (low $2s) and preobably has a ways to go still. Assessment is $1.2