My pal Fudrucker does some commercial real estate as well as residential, and is just back from a meeting with some heavy hitters in that field – boy are they bummed. Word is, the bottom may be as far out as 2014. Rents are down, down down, and commercial real estate is all about money flow. And unlike residential real estate, there’s no such thing as a short sale – it’s bankruptcy or no deal.
I know from nothing about commercial real estate, but I don’t find this vision unpersuasive. Things do not look good, from this bear’s perspective.