Guessing game

House vote on debt ceiling cancelled for tonight. We (EBT Realty) have three solid bids out there on properties whose owners have either refused to respond at all or fired back, in one notable email, that we have our heads up our a***. Well, we’ll see. In one case, the seller is said to have turned down $10 million in early 2008 and is still desperately clinging to the idea that his house is still worth almost that much (he’s lowered his price down to $9). If all hell breaks loose next week, they may regret their stubbornness, like the builder of a spec house in 2007, priced it at $12 million, rejected an offer of $9, dropped it to $9 eventually and rejected an offer of $7 and finally sold it for $4 million, just one step ahead of the foreclosure auction.

Or these guys may all prove to be financial geniuses when the market roars back to 2007 levels. I know where my money is.


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11 responses to “Guessing game

  1. anon

    what do you think the house on sparrow will sell for?

  2. Get Real

    CF – don’t even answer that question. You’re not going to get it right and whether you’re high or low – you’ll look like an ass.

  3. Riverslide

    No question a raising of the debt ceiling and the continutation of government spending and borrowing are good for the investment banks, and thus good for high-end real estate brokers in Greenwich.

  4. Mystery Shopper

    You are absolutely right Chris. The outlook is really grim and sellers don’t get it.

    With all the new layoffs on Wall Street and the GDP numbers (article below) on top of the debt ceiling.

  5. Jeremy Jones

    Your pessimism, while rewarding vis-a-vis the traditional rah rah broker, is off target. While the economy is stumbling along, we are not in a 2008-type financial crisis. Whether or not the debt ceiling is raised, the deficit reduced, etc., we are not in any short term predicament. Long-term housing prices in Greenwich depend primarily on the income at the top end of the financial services funnel . . . this top end certainly isn’t getting better, but it’s pretty stable right now. There is a fine line between being realistic (helpful) and pessimistic (not helpful).

  6. It’s hard not to feel a touch of schadenfreude when you see situations like that.

  7. HG

    Your post wisely considers the downside risk for someone who contracts to buy (or fails to contract to sell) a house with all the craziness in the world. The other side of the contract, however, is agreeing to take US dollars, which just crossed through 0.80 of a Swiss franc for the first time today. I wonder how comfortable a seller should feel agreeing to take dollars, which have uncertain value six months from now, in return for his nice, solid house which keeps the rain off his head at least. What is a dollar?

  8. Towny

    What is a dollar? better yet….when was the last time you bought penny candy??

  9. Anonymous

    it’s ok to take dollars as long as his mortgage is underwater in dollars.

  10. Krazy Kat

    All Hell will not break out next week, at least nothing out of the new normal’s ordinary. A deal will get done; no one may like it, but it will get done. If a deal does not get done, Treasury still has a week or so of wiggle room. That does not mean we are not doomed, just that next week is not the timing of our collective doom. I am think September…..

  11. Anonymous

    i think sparrow will sell for 10% above it’s 2002 price