Big ticket houses aren’t doing so well

There are 67 houses for sale priced between $5 and $9 million. Thirty-one houses in that range sold in 2011, suggesting that we have “only” a two-year inventory but the picture may be bleaker than that. Here are the sales for that category for the last quarter of each of the past four years:

2011: 3

2010: 7

2009: 5

2008: 2

2007: 11

5 Comments

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5 responses to “Big ticket houses aren’t doing so well

  1. Greenwich Gal

    Why are you posting the sales from only the last quarters of those years? That does not seem to make sense to me – to judge a market by only the sales from part of the year. Explain.

  2. Come back to reality

    is it consensus that 2007 was the peak for Greenwich real estate? I thought it was more like 2005/early-2006?

  3. Reader

    How many of the homes in the inventory are the left over developer spec houses from the bubble?

  4. Nathan Hale

    This is not statistically significant data.

    Here’s a suggestion from your logic professor:
    Start with your theory of why this might be so.
    Then provide dis-positive evidence in the form of sales results to prove your case.

    Finally, explain out the results confirm your premise.

  5. Hey

    GG I believe Chris’ point is that since the Q4 sales are exceptionally close to those of Q4 08, the overall annual volume is a misleading indicator of the present health of the market. Annual volume sees 2 years of inventory while extrapolating from the Q4 run rate sees 5 years, obviously a much less healthy stat.

    As to Nathan Hale’s complaints over statistical significance – you really are never going to get that in real estate unless you’re looking at a very long time frame and a very wide geographical area. Not sure you could ever get a statistically valid sample in the given population of homes.