It’s only Wednesday morning but of the 7 accepted offers reported so far this week, one was asking $3.7 million, the other six were all at $2 million or below, and even as low as $445,000.
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No wonder there’s no action — here’s how you keep them dumb and broke: Ben Bernanke Says That His Son Will Graduate With $400,000 Of Student Loan Debt
So far the last 30 days, which is the optimal time right after bonus announcement, around 90% of all deals are below $2 million, and around 50% are below $1 million.
And if we look closely, we will notice that most of them are south of route 1.
Fringe areas are dead and the middle priced in any area is resting.
Ah-ha! so that is why Ben has keep the rates so low…to subsidize his son’s college debts….and I thought it was to help float the world economy.
the low end will always have activity due to new household formation and first time homebuyers
houses $3-5mm are typically people trading up or affluent families new to the Greenwich area; that was the sweet spot for the upwardly mobile wall street sell-side crowd and of course it is getting hit (for now) due to liquidity constraints; it unfortunately is also probably the most overpriced given where houses are trading currently on an apples to apples basis
bad times won’t last forever though – so in the short term it might be an opportunity for new buyers; in the medium term it is a bit more opaque – particularly if the downtrend in finance salaries is secular and not cyclical; longer term probably a great entry point
So based on Gideon prediction, we should have an additional 23+ accepted offers in the next 48 hours.
I am leaning towards a more realistic prediction of an additional 6 accepted offers till the end of the week.
South of route 1 is the way to go.
Liquidity restraints may be here for a little longer than you think. No one said the new normal was going to be pretty.
if someone gets 80% of this year’s bonus in deferred comp, it will typically vest over 3 yrs annually
so they will get 25% of this year’s bonus (33% of 80%) this time next year, along with (hopefully) a bigger check than the abortion that was early 2012 bonuses for year end 2011
most of the banks’ stock prices are higher now than when they were priced in January for the deferred comp bonus – hence another positive
I’ve said it before and it is quite relevant – if the stock market holds up this year, we will prob see a quick rebound later this year/early next year as bonuses will come back and people will feel richer; this says nothing to whether it is a sustainable bounce or whether prices continue higher – only that pent up demand will come to the market and it will not be the dramatic one-way buyer’s market we see currently
the only unknown would be how much shadow inventory comes out on any uptick – but I would guess in Greenwich it is probably not as big of an issue as in some other towns
“If” stocks hold up is a big i”f”. An even bigger “if” is “if” the financials hold up (know body knows what is really on the books or what kind of exposure they have). “IF” i were a buyer, i would probably wait at least until after the election.
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