A British perspective: Obama in trouble

We'll always have the Vineyard

As of right now, and subject to change, bad economy, lack of real issues are hurting Obama.

Obama can’t talk about the economy being bad because he would be held responsible for it. But going too far in talking it up could be just as disastrous. Politically, he has to thread the needle.

Obama will keep trying to talk about something, anything other than the economy – contraception and dogs being the most recent examples – but Romney has the relatively straightforward task of being disciplined enough to talk relentlessly about jobs and the economy.

If you viewed all this solely through the prism of media coverage and listened just to Washington pundits, you’d conclude that Obama has about an 80 percent chances of victory. In reality, his chances are much closer to 50:50, perhaps even with Romney holding an advantage (though many things can and will happen in six months).

This cognitive dissonance is partly because of a liberal tilt but also because most reporters and talking heads live in bubbles of comfortable affluence insulated from the economic pain most Americans are facing.

Sounds about right (and hopeful) to me.

9 Comments

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9 responses to “A British perspective: Obama in trouble

  1. Molly

    General understanding is that Greenwich residents, such as yourself, also pretty consistently dwell “in bubbles of comfortable affluence insulated from the economic pain most Americans are facing”, as does Mitt Romney. All the more power to you, as they say, but does the charge of “cognitive dissonance” therefore apply to you both, or just to the so-called liberal media?

  2. Inagua

    This analysis would be correct if a majority of voters were knowledgeable and rational. But most voters are neither, and they vote mostly like their friends vote, which is why Obama will be almost certainly be reelected — he will get 97% of the Blacks; 78% of the Hispanics; 76% of the Jews; and 68% of the Asians. Add in overlapping groups like public employees, union members, homosexuals, academics, abortion rights advocates, animal rights activists, enviromentalists, and it is very tough to see Obama defeated. There probably aren’t enough intelligent white voters left in America to defeat Obama and the coming Entitlement State. The only chance is if Obama fails to get out his vote.

  3. Walt

    Dude –
    I agree with the Lizard Boy on this one. Unfortunately, there is no way Obama loses. Did you see this?
    http://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-stratfor-emails-democrats-tampered-with-2008-election-2012-4
    Same way Malloy was elected Governor in Connecticut. Keep the polls open in Bridgeport long enough to win. Vote early, vote often is a hard strategy to beat. And it is getting worse in this country, not better. Why do you think the Dem’s oppose voter ID? You need ID to buy a beer, but not to vote?
    It is a disgrace. And ensures this election is a lock for Barry.
    You naive little worm.
    Your Pal,
    Walt

  4. Dogfella

    Obama is the freak that should have never been elected, yet his strategy is “why change?” and to make up inane and scary stories about Romney. However, it won’t work. Mitt in a landslide.

  5. Seriously?

    The hype is how Obama got elected in 2008 but the hype continues to dwindle. When he took office his approval index was 28, today it is -16, that’s negative 16! In addition, no president has had the current poll numbers that Obama has at this point in the race and gone on to win reelection. These are facts, not speculation. Based on these and other facts, giving him a 50:50 shot at reelection is extremely generous. November is along way out but things look horrible for him. The feeling amongst voters during the mid term election has not gone away, just not reported. At the end of the day, not much to hang your hat on in terms of accomplishments in the last 4 years. Voters can clearly see lack of results.

  6. anonymous

    Obama will not get many independents this year. Nor will he get the “white guilt” vote. Let’s see how women that voted for Obama last would rather give him 4 more years or have thier husband stop yelling at the tv every night. My gut is that ladies no longer believe his empty blathering and they will decide the election.

  7. Cos Cobber

    I’m with Walt and Inaqua for exactly their reasons. Mitt doesnt have a chance. We’ve passed the tipping point on dependents.

  8. Anonymous

    Add to the mix that the main stream media will throw away the little objectivity they have left and go all-in to get O re-elected. Romney doesnt stand a chance. Most voters are now swayed by the sound-bites they hear from MSM and O’s lies will never be called out.

  9. anonymous

    These comments alone are enough reason for us all to stand behind Mitt. Let’s face it, most people elected to our highest office ar not that in touch with Joe Six Pack. We need fresh blood and ideas in Washington. Mitt would do a much better job than Obama who by the way is the biggest flip flopper that has ever occupied the white house. Don’t give up. Let’s get the word out and get behind Mitt so we can send Obama on a permanent vacation.