Joe, it seems that every time people somewhere in the world experience a weather-related tragedy or hardship, be it a tornado, hurricane, drought, flood, blizzard snowfall, or unseasonably cold or hot conditions, we see pundits and politicians blaming them on an alarming and unprecedented “climate change” we are causing. Are we really screwing things up that badly?
Joe Bastardi: No Larry, Mother Nature rules! She’s totally the boss, always has been…always does things her way…and not just in America.
First of all, we need to keep in mind that “climate” occurs over at least three decade periods and on a large scale. The 48 contiguous U.S. states we hear most about in the news only constitute about 1.58 percent of the globe. These changing climate and fluctuating weather consequences are driven primarily by natural changes in solar cycles, ocean temperatures, and “stochastic events” such as volcanoes, which I have labeled the triple crown of cooling. The first two occur on various long term cycles; decades in the oceans, and centuries with the Sun. The stochastic events are random wild cards ( just to make it all more fun).
Larry: Seems like we’re always hearing media reports about how weather conditions are getting worse, caused by man-made climate change of course…our carbon-belching smoke stacks, SUV’s and all.
Joe: Part of that appears to be attributable to very short memories concerning times past, and even shorter media attention spans. It seems that “worse” is always more newsworthy than “better”. The fact is that those alarmist claims simply aren’t true.
Larry: As you mentioned, the period between the 1960s and ‘90s were pretty quiet in comparison with immediately previous times. And you think we’re in for rougher times going forward? If this is the case, I guess we’re going to hear a lot more hot air about a carbon-caused global warming crisis.
Joe: Yes, the particular combination of entirely natural ocean conditions that are developing now are producing a change in the in the entire global weather system. In the Tropics, the main source of heat is slightly cooler to the west of us, while the Atlantic is warm. This sets up a certain pattern of events that is different from the ‘60s through ‘90s.
Why? That’s because first, the Pacific was cold then, and the Atlantic was cold also. Then when the Pacific warmed, the Atlantic was still cold. That combination resulted in less overall hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. For meteorologists, this is entirely logical and intuitive. If the tropical Atlantic is cooler, and the tropical Pacific is warmer, then where will the hurricanes be?
Now those conditions are reversed. Dr. Bill Gray forecasted all of this back in the 1970s. This shows how despicable the global warming alarmist agenda can be, when the very guy who got the forecast exactly right gets trashed for not agreeing with people who weren’t even around to make their own forecasts, yet claim it’s due to something else.
Larry: It’s difficult for the public to know what to believe and who to trust. We are constantly exposed to terrifying and tragic disaster accounts on television and newspaper features, along with relentless guilt-mongering about how we are causing everything bad that happens.
Joe: Many people are vulnerable to this propaganda because guilt is a powerful influence that some opportunists are all too willing to exploit for numerous reasons that you and I are painfully aware of. Americans, like other people around the world, typically don’t have the information or take the time to put today into perspective with yesterday or last year, much less decades past. It’s unfortunate to downplay or ignore foundations of what came before… lessons from experience.