Well of course


Good bye to all that?

Good bye to all that?

Climate scientists admits, “our global warning models could be fundamentally wrong”.

In an interview with the German news publication Der Spiegel, meteorologist Hans von Storch said that scientists are so puzzled by the 15-year standstill in global warmingthat if the trend continues their models could be “fundamentally wrong.”

“If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models,” Storch told Der Spiegel. “A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario. But even today, we are finding it very difficult to reconcile actual temperature trends with our expectations.”


“There are two conceivable explanations — and neither is very pleasant for us,” said Storch. “The first possibility is that less global warming is occurring than expected because greenhouse gases, especially CO2, have less of an effect than we have assumed. This wouldn’t mean that there is no man-made greenhouse effect, but simply that our effect on climate events is not asgreat as we have believed.”

“The other possibility  is that, in our simulations, we have underestimated how much the climate fluctuates owing to natural causes,” Storch added.

Did you get that? The collapse of the global warming “would be very unpleasant for us” – he’s talking about negative consequences for the global warming industry, not human kind. That says all you need to know about the “settled science” of global warming.

UPDATE: Chris R sends along this from the Economist, which says it far more clearly than I can: this is devastating to the climate control industry. Do read it.



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13 responses to “Well of course

  1. it sort of reminds me of those psychics trying to explain why their predictions failed to materialize


  2. Toonces

    Global warming is a global business. Making money for Al and all the green companies getting government subsidies. And of course, it is a way for the government to gain more control. Storch is not very pleasant!

  3. +Five

    Speaking of burning fuel and burning cash…
    CT democratic-lunatic-blood sucking policy failures want to raise our state gas tax by 18%…

  4. +Five

    Of all people, I should have seen it the same way… My secret identity is being revealed.

  5. Thank you for great links.

  6. Anonymous

    But, but, but … they all said it was settled science! Only fools wouldn’t accept the truth of global warning. The Arctic melting, polar bears with nowhere to go. Oh my.

  7. Hope it is OK that I forwarded message to Obama as he prepares his speech for tomorrow…..he will be so yesterday…….unless he admits he reads your daily elucidate efforts..

  8. weakleyhollow

    Validating any model as complex as a world wide climatological model is nearly impossible to the level of precision that the Algorists would have us believe they’ve done. At the same time, to completely oppose the climate change alarmists is to suggest that you are making common cause with some true flat earth fools, whose funding comes from sources where the answer is just as predetermined as it is in Algorland. That makes the whole climate thing a shameful hodgepodge. Some climate scientists, including a friend of mine, have simply refused to play, but instead have opted to study a narrow slice, such as El Nino. Time and data will tell the true tale.

    • From the Economist blog I linked to:

      As a rule, climate scientists were previously very confident that the planet would be warmer than it is by now, and no one knows for sure why it isn’t. This isn’t a crisis for climate science. This is just the way science goes. But it is a crisis for climate-policy advocates who based their arguments on the authority of scientific consensus. Mr Cohn eventually gets around to admitting that

      In the end, the so-called scientific consensus on global warming doesn’t look like much like consensus when scientists are struggling to explain the intricacies of the earth’s climate system, or uttering the word “uncertainty” with striking regularity.
      But his attempt to minimise the political relevance of this is unconvincing. He writes:

      The recent wave of news and magazine articles about scientists struggling to explain the warming slowdown could prolong or deepen the public’s skepticism.But the “consensus” never extended to the intricacies of the climate system, just the core belief that additional greenhouse gas emissions would warm the planet.
      If this is true, then the public has been systematically deceived. As it has been presented to the public, the scientific consensus extended precisely to that which is now seems to be in question: the sensitivity of global temperature to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Indeed, if the consensus had been only that greenhouse gases have some warming effect, there would have been no obvious policy implications at all. As this paper has maintained:

      If … temperatures are likely to rise by only 2°C in response to a doubling of carbon emissions (and if the likelihood of a 6°C increase is trivial), the calculation might change. Perhaps the world should seek to adjust to (rather than stop) the greenhouse-gas splurge. There is no point buying earthquake insurance if you do not live in an earthquake zone. In this case more adaptation rather than more mitigation might be the right policy at the margin. But that would be good advice only if these new estimates really were more reliable than the old ones. And different results come from different models.
      We have not been awash in arguments for adaptation precisely because the consensus pertained to now-troubled estimates of climate sensitivity. The moralising stridency of so many arguments for cap-and-trade, carbon taxes, and global emissions treaties was founded on the idea that there is a consensus about how much warming there would be if carbon emissions continue on trend. The rather heated debates we have had about the likely economic and social damage of carbon emissions have been based on that idea that there is something like a scientific consensus about the range of warming we can expect. If that consensus is now falling apart, as it seems it may be, that is, for good or ill, a very big deal.

  9. +Five

    I believe FWIW and it’s readers may have had something to do with this…!


  10. Anon

    Here’s a very thorough and honest analysis of the green speech Obama plans to give today. Called The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly. Excellent read.


  11. sunbeam43

    All I can say is…….Well, DUH!