21 Winthrop
I mentioned here last week that 21 Winthrop, 0.75 acre, two building lots, asking $3.450 million, had gone to sealed bids. Today that’s confirmed. I won’t even pretend to understand how someone could pay this much or, it sounds like, even more.
Crazy market over here in Riverside.
For What It's Worth 
Agreed…unless you also tell us the new construction houses on Hearthstone Drive have accepted offers.
Even assuming they do sell, from, say, $2.95-$3.450, depending on the house, if someone pays $1.750 here for each lot, there’s just no room for profit on a $3.250 sale or even, go wild, a $3.4 one, to justify the risk and expense.
So I don’t get it.
could be a greater chance of making a profit on a single huge super-high-end house (e.g, another Doran Sabag number) with what would still be a relatively big yard…could price it for $7-8M?
No
Could have done the same thing at 40 Winthrop with an even bigger lot (almost 1 acre) but it didn’t happen. Under contract at a lower price than this ask.
Indeed – that’s why I don’t understand this sale. 21 will probably trade somewhere between $2.750, $2.950 and it’s better, bigger land.
Dutch Tulips.
A regular person like me pays 300/sq foot to build. – can’t a builder do it for much less -say 150/sq foot? So you build 4000 sq feet at 600G, spend 100 on landscaping and you’re in for 2.450. That’s a nice profit if selling for 3.2 Do I have all the numbers wrong?
I hear $250, and for $3 million plus, you probably will have to build 6,000 sq. ft. So that’d be $1.5 for construction, $1.750 for the land = $3.250 before you’ve even begun to address carrying costs, commissions, taxes and risk. Bad deal.
hmm, I was considering the above ground (FAR) sq footage because I hear below ground is cheaper per foot. I think builder cost is much less but I am just assuming and you know what they say about assuming.
numbers just don’t pencil out at that level ….
A small building lot in Greenwich ……. $1mm; to live on a street named Winthrop in the Riverside section of Greenwich……. priceless
Say each house will be 4500 sf + 500 garage + 1500 basement. Based on comps from Welwyn, etc., selling price could be close to $4mm. Build cost probably $1.1 – $1.2 million. So you could easily pay $1.9 and make a great profit. I think these lots will sell for between $1.9 and $2.0 a piece.
Most builders still follow the 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 rule (land, building, overhead and profit). A $3.9 sale, assuming you could get that much for a 4,500 sq.ft. house on 1/3 acre, and assuming you could achieve the quality finish work you’d need to justify that price for $250 sq.ft., and assuming the garage, landscaping and basement were done at no cost, would net you 20%, not 33%. There are builders who will take that risk in boom times – none that I know for long, and none who will be here after the coming bust, but they do exist.
Don’t think it’s appropriate to use Welwyn as a comp for Winthrop. Perhaps we can begin using Byram streets as comps for Belle Haven?
Could be the buyer is planning to build and stay there for a while so doesn’t have to worry about making a profit ..just wants to be on Winthrop badly
Not at $3.5 million, no, I don’t think so.
I agree there will be a correction. New construction is in short supply and is selling in a frenzy. As new supply is built, the scarcity premium will correct. But land prices have entered boom time territory. In Rye (as an aside), 11 Ann Lane (teardown land) sold for $1.5 in 2006, listed for $1.7 recently, and went in sealed bid for $2.7. Bought by an end user who plans to build on it and outbid all the builders and the asking price by a whopping 60%.
It just feels like real estate prices will surpass the peak in 2004 or 2005.
Maybe in Riverside. Not in Back country, mid country, Glenville. Definitely not in flood zones.
I firmly believe that the increased demand in Riverside is a result of people wanting to move into the Old Greenwich/Riverside area and are nervous about Old Greenwich being so low lying. Winthrop is the best of both worlds.
You would think this is true, but lots in flood zones (e.g. Carriglea, Dawn Harbor) are going for $$$. Perhaps it’s just the Indian Head cachet?
Not just the Indian Head cachet; Sunset, Shore Acre and West End in OG, all selling
I am not sure the price is crazy. Weren’t building lots in Hearthstone and Druid being sold for about the same price some time ago? Winthrop is much nicer in my opinion.