Tag Archives: 499 Indian Field Road

I said it then, it’s inching closer to proving me right

499 Indian Field Rd

499 Indian Field Rd

Ogilvy & Associates has cut the price of the Greenways/Copper Beech estate another $10 million to $130,000, down $60 from its opening price. Last May I noted that Ogilvy held the record for largest fall from asking to actual selling price: the Helmsley place, $90 million price cut; and predicted that he’d break his own record for this one. $60 million isn’t $90 million, yet, but back in September, when this property took its first price cut of $50 million I predicted an eventual selling price of $45 and, even if I was too conservative then,  there’s still plenty of room for that $90 to be surpassed.

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$50 million price cut from Ogilvy

Stormy Weather ....

Stormy Weather ….

499 Indian Field Road, which made headlines around the world when it was listed a few months ago for $190 million has, as predicted here, taken the first of what will probably be many price cuts. Today, that same property can be yours for the bargain price of just $140 million. Also as predicted here, the same reporters who gave Ogilvy such great press originally will not be around to report on this or subsequent price cuts. Smart man, that Ogilvy and a master at garnering free publicity.

I’m still holding to my prediction of $45 million, tops.

Stormy Circle

Stormy Circle

Further down the price scale and across the street from the water, 7 Stormy Circle (I kid you not) reports an accepted offer. It asked $1.680 in 2004 and didn’t get it. Owner brought it back at $1.095 this year and found a buyer.

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So how much is Greenways / Copper Beech really worth?

(Representative mansion)

(Representative mansion)

Probably not the $190 million being asked for it. I was playing with some napkin calculations and here’s my guess, completely unsupported by accurate surveys, wetland delineations and so forth, so you know how much credence to give it:

Of its fifty acres, there are probably no more than five  or six building lots it can accommodate after wetlands, tidal lands, road set asides, conservation set aside, etc. are deducted and accounted for ( and deduct the two islands – they count for the acreage total but won’t be built on). Of those lots, the parcel that the obsolete mansion itself sits on is the best and the only one that, so far as I can tell, has (quasi-) deep water frontage and a view down the Sound. Be generous, give that lot $18 million for land, $0 for the house itself. The other lots are either “waterfront” with mudflats in front, or interior. You might carve out two mudflat lots and, maybe, sell them for $5 million apiece, and up to three more interior lots worth maybe $2 million each. That’s $32 million total. It might be more, it might be less, but it’s not $190 million.

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