Tag Archives: sales statistics

Activity this year in single family homes – some numbers, make of them what you will

School District             YTD           Current Inventory

 

OG/RV                                 33                        96

PKWY                                   19                       145

NS                                         17                        107

CC                                           9                         30

Price Range                                                     Price Range Inventory

OG/RV

<$1     5                                                               6

$1-$2     10                                                        25

$2-$3     9                                                         18

$3-$4     2                                                         18

$4-$5     2                                                          8

$5-$6    2                                                           6

$6-$7    1                                                            2

$7-$15   2                                                          11

PKW

<$1        2                                                            4

$1-$2     7                                                          24

$2-$3    3                                                          24

$3-$4    0                                                          19

$4-$5    2                                                          10

$5-$6    0                                                          15

$6-7       2                                                           7

$7-$8    1                                                          11

$8-$9    0                                                          9

$9-10     0                                                          4

$10-13   0                                                           5

$13-15    2                                                          4

>  $15     0                                                          7

NS

<1          4                                                           9

$1-$2     10                                                     23

$2-$3       7                                                     19

$3-$4       4                                                     15

$4-$5       1                                                      13

$5-$10     0                                                     16

$10-$15    0                                                     10

>$15          0                                                      3

CC

<$1            9                                                     17

$1-2           2                                                    13

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Sales data

I’ve got a permanent link to the site over on the right under “Useful Links”, “Greenwich Sales Data”, but if you haven’t seen it, check out Raveis’s statistic pages. Quite informative and I can promise you, no salesman will call. Besides, would I steer you away to a competitor? Good data.

UPDATE: Raveis also has an excellent mapping tool, showing homes for sale (not just theirs), distance to schools, train, highways, etc., and lots of other good stuff, if you play around with it. It’s a rainy day, go for it!

UPDATE II – Retired IB’R asks whether the data is massaged – it isn’t; even if I no longer work for Bill Raveis I still respect and like him – always have, and he has worked hard at producing useful, accurate data because of his vision that the future of realtors lies in being a dispenser of information, not its gatekeeper. But I notice some houses aren’t listed – that’s not Raveis’ fault, that’s the fault of certain companies who refuse to release their information. The sales statistics are complete – they come from the MLS (but beware the “sales to ask ratio” of, say 88% – MLS uses last asking price, not original), but the mapping feature is a little less than 100%. You’ll still get a pretty good idea of what’s out there, though.

Here’s an irony, by the way: I left Raveis because his legal department wanted me to indemnify the firm from any law suits that might arise from my blog, a $100,000 or so liability I was unwilling to assume, especially when I can defend myself for free. A friend who’s still there tells me that they are now pushing their agents to start blogs as a marketing tool! I offered, many times, to give classes on blogging, just to be a team player. Never accepted but now that they forced me out, someone in marketing looked around and said, “gee…”. Heh.

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So how’re we doin’?

Greenwich Time reports, via John Cooke, that single family sales are the same this past quarter as the third quarter of 2008. John reports 138 sales each quarter while I, using the MLS statistics, find 120, this year and last. John’s probaly using a different data base but I’ll go with what I have because, I woult think, the broad picture is the same.

So, of the 120 homes sold via the MLS, 31 were under $1 million, 11 sold between $5-$10 million and 4 sold for more than $10.

2008: 23 under $1 million, 13 between $5-10 million, 5 sold for more than $10.

2007, 178 houses sold, 27 under $1 million, 22 between $5-$10, and 12 greater than $10 million.

Contracts for the period September 1-October 14:

2009: 20, nothing for homes asking more than $8.4 (one in that range).

2008: 30, with 2 over $10 million.

2007: 49, with 3 over $10 million.

As an aside, the dead tree version of today’s paper uses the headline “For What it’s Worth” to lead an article on home appraisers. I appreciate the reference, but I’m curious why no one from Greenwich Time has ever called me to discuss real estate and always heads to the GAR for comment. It couldn’t be from fear of offending advertisers, surely.

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High end sales

Eight houses originally priced at $5,000,000 and above have sold this year, with another eight between $3,000,000 and $5,000,000 joining them in the parade offstage. How’d they do? Not so bad: the $5+ crowd went for an average of 80% of ask, their little brothers for 74%. Some of this is because the sellers acknowledged a loss upfront and priced accordingly, but still, not all that bad.

$5+  Listings

41 Birchwood (new) $5.995 ask, $5.200 sold, 87%

241 Bedfordt (atq) $6.250, $5.675, 90%

48 Parsonage (new) $7.850, $6.000, 76%

21 Bobolink (old) $8.900, $5.000, 56%

31 N. Porchuck (2 yrs. old) $6.995, $6.250, 89% (purchased for $7.850, 2007)

80 Perkins new) $7.950, $6.700, 84%

38 Andrrews (new) $9.250, $8.325, 90%

253 Round Hill (new) $25 mil., $16.500, 66%

Middle Tier, $3-$% million

154 Cognewaugh (new), $4.895, $3.000, 61%

215 Orchard, (2006) $3.799, $3.00, 79%

2 Jofran (old) $3.200, $2850, 89%

709 Lake (old), $3.850, $3.100, 80% (paid $3.3 million, 2005)

126 Cat Rock (2001), $4.150, $3.200, 77% (paid $3.600, 2001)

224 Round Hill (land) $3.995, $3.000, 75%

89 Perkins (quasi-new) $5.875, $3.450, 59%

49 Hillside Drive (new), $5.975, $4.200, 70%

My personal view on this is that,  despite most of these houses going for something approaching what the sellers demanded, we have so much dead inventory that, unless you find exactly the house you want, you’d be foolish to offer anything like a house’s asking price (if you do find that perfect house or the perfect location or both and you have the money, heck, go for it, rather than lose it. We realtors will love you for your devil may care attitude). There are 161 listings now for sale priced at $5 million and up , and we’re moving 16 per year. 46 of those whoppers are spec homes put up by builders who, for the most part, are hanging on by their fingernails. Take them out, end their pain. And we have the same situation in the $3-5 million range: 160 offerings, 29 of which are spec and again, we’ll move 15 or 16 this year, unless things improve. For every ten sellers who are outraged at your measly offer, one will probably thank you.

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Seller’s remorse?

Just had a proposed deal founder over a 7% difference between what my buyers’ mortgage lender had approved and what the sellers “needed” for their house. I understand: just as buyers hit a ceiling and can go no higher, sellers can have a floor. But my guess is that these sellers may regret their choice because, while my buyers will just move on and find another house, the sellers will still have a house they no longer want. For how long? maybe just the weekend, maybe longer.

This month 23 single family houses went to contract, qa distinct improvement from last month’s 12,but a far cry from April 2007’s 74. Of the 23, eight have already sold so I have their actual closing prices. Those eight sold from a low of 41% of the original asking price to a high of 90% (37 Andrews farm Road, if you’re interested). Average: 69% of original asking price. And, while I can’t tell the final price for those houses under contract, every single one of them sold for less than ask and many of them were way, way off their original price before they found a buyer.

So our happy home seller will pass up a definite sale now in the hope of achieving 6.8% more down the road. He may get that – the statistics suggest otherwise.

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2009 sales

Barring any last minute reports, today’s a dull day for real estate transactions, so I thought I’d look up what happened with the eight sales we’ve seen so far this year.

48 Parsonage Rd, new construction, sold for $6 million. (They asked almost $8) . Because it’s new there are no useful data on it so we’ll skip it.

4 Waterfall Lane sold for $900,000. It sold for $879,000 in 2004 which, adjusted per the CPI Index, was the equivalent of $982,00 today. And it’s 2002 sale price, pre-renovations, was $730,000, an inflation-adjusted $856,778 today.

14 River Lane also sold for $900,000. It last sold for $1.570 million in 2005.

14 Overlook sold for $1.550 million. Its $1.625 sales price, adjusted for inflation, would be $1.816. And its 2007 sales price of $1.896 needs no adjustment at all to detect a loss.

10 Shelter Drive sold for $1.762 million. There is no past sales history but it did ask for $2,993,000 back in 2006 and stayed unsold through many price cuts.

7 Gisborne Place sold for $2.2 Million. It sold for $2.860 in Jan. ’07 and $1.810 in 1999 ($2,300,000 in ’09 dollars).

2 Jofran sold for $2.850. Again there is no sales history but the selling firm reported a phonied-up “asking price” of $3.2. The house was never listed on the MLS and therefore never really exposed to the market so its selling price could be on the money or way off base one way or the other.

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sales 2007 vs 2008

 

John Cooke Statistics

John Cooke Statistics

I’ll pull the fourth quarter statistics, which are dismal.

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